The deteriorated security situation in 2017 and the future scenarios
Speaking at a meeting in Kandahar province, the acting Afghan Minister of Defense Tariq Shah Bahrami said that war is spread to the 23 provinces of the country and nine other provinces are under high-security threat. [1]
In the past several months, several strategic districts of the country have fallen into the hands of the Taliban, and in some others, the war continues.
It comes at a time that the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan’s Reconstruction (SIGAR) has reported to the US Congress that from 1 January to 8 May 2017, 2531 Afghan security forces were killed, and 4238 others were wounded. [2]
All of these on the one hand and the deadly explosions in the capital and major cities and attacks on the Afghan security bases in various regions of the country on the other hand, indicate the intense security situation in the country.
The security situation after the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), the security situation since the beginning of 2017, and the direction of the security situation in the country are issues that are analyzed here.
The security situation after the formation of the NUG
After the formation of the NUG, besides deterioration of the security situation in the country, the geography of war also shifted from the South of the country to the North, and unlike the past, the war in Northern provinces began to intensify. Besides the collapse of several districts in the Northern provinces of the country (Char Dara and Dasht-e-Archi in Kunduz province, Kohistan in Sar-e-Pol, Yamgan in Badakhshan, Ghurmach in Faryab and Tala Barfak and Dand-e-Ghori in Baghlan) Kunduz city also fell into the hands of the Taliban.
In 2015, from 398 districts in the country, 31 were under the control of the Taliban, in 36 other districts the Taliban controlled the suburbs and the government controlled only the centers of the districts, according to the report of the “Long War Journal” released in October 2015. According to SIGAR’s report, in 2016, 33 districts in 16 provinces of the country were under the control or influence of the Taliban, and in many others, the war continued.
SIGAR also reports that the Afghan government holds control of the 63.4% of the Afghan soil, while the US commander in Afghanistan General John Nicolson had said in September 2016 that the Afghan government controlled 68 to 70 percent of the country’s territory. Hence, in 2016, approximately one-third of Afghanistan was controlled by the government’s armed opposition. [3]
On the other hand, besides the attacks of the government’s armed oppositions, the airstrikes carried out by the foreign forces has cost the lives of Afghan civilians and sometimes the lives of Afghan forces as well, while the NUG remains silent against such incidents.
On the other hand, UNAMA had reported that between 1 January and 30 December 2015, there were 11002 civilian casualties in Afghanistan which showed an increase compared to 2009 and 2014. However, in 2016, UNAMA’s reported that 3498 civilians were killed and 7920 other were injured in 2016, which showed a three percent increase compared to 2015.
Besides the high number of civilian casualties, the casualties of the Afghan security forces are also on the rise after the formation of the NUG. According to the report of SIGAR, 5000 Afghan soldiers are killed, and 15 thousand others are injured in the war against the government’s armed opposition in 2015. However, the statistics of 2016 by the same organization shows even worse situation compared to 2015. From 1 January to 19 August 2017, 5523 Afghans forces are killed, and 9665 are injured.
The security situation in the country in 2017
The security situation in 2017 is worsened compared to 2016. With the beginning of this year bloody attacks and explosions occurred in the capital and other major cities of the country such as the assault on 209th Shaheen Corps, the Attack on the Sardar Mohammad Daud Khan’s Hospital, the powerful explosion in the diplomatic area of Kabul, the attack on the base of the Afghan security forces in Shahwalikot of Kandahar, the attack on a branch of the New-Kabul-Bank in Helmand, etc.
Since the beginning of 2017, the Tala Barfak district of Baghlan Province, Zibak in Badakhshan, Kohistan in Faryab, Tiyora in Ghor, Qala-e-Zal in Kunduz, Shurabak in Kandahar, Sangeen in Helmand, and Janikhail in Paktia fell at the hands of the Taliban and several other were at-risk of falling for several times or were captured by the Taliban for several hours.
The increase in the number of air strikes which has cost many civilian lives is another challenge in this regard. In this year foreign forces repeatedly targeted the Afghan civilians and forces.
The findings of UNAMA indicate that in the first six months of 2017, 1662 Afghan civilians are killed in the armed conflicts or explosions, and 3581 other were injured. However, in the first half of 2016, 1601 civilians were killed, and 3565 other were injured. [4]
According to the reports of SIGAR, from January to 12 November 2016, 6785 Afghan soldiers were killed, and 11777 other were wounded. Nonetheless, in the current year, these statistics have risen, and from 1 January to 8 May 2017, 2531 Afghan soldiers are killed, and 4238 others are injured.
The future of the security situation in the country
The future of the security situation in the country depends on the following few points:
The US’ new military strategy in Afghanistan: the 16-years-old war in Afghanistan was the longest US war ever. With Trump coming to power in the US, there are both the concerns about the perpetuation of the war and hopes to its termination. The US new strategy towards Afghanistan was to be announced in mid-July 2017, but the division among the US authorities over the issue delayed it. Speaking at a press conference, the US President Donald Trump said last week that Washington had come close to making a final decision regarding Afghanistan and that it was important to him.
The US officials have offered various options to deal with the Afghan issue, among them the privatization of the war. While it is not clear whether which option will be selected to deal with Afghanistan, increasing the number of troops and privatization of the war will strengthen the morale of the armed oppositions and will put a negative impact on the peace process. Moreover, giving the security responsibilities to the private security companies will entail worst consequences and will further complicate the situation in the country.
Terminating the war and maintaining peace: ending the war and sincere peace efforts for national reconciliation are directly related to the security situation in the country in the future. If the US and the international community want to put an end to the war in Afghanistan, the only way is to allow Afghans themselves to make efforts for reconciliation and resolve their problems. In the meanwhile, the US can play a significant role in responsibly ending the war it had started in 2001.
Afghanistan’s war and peace strategy: after the formation of the NUG, the Afghan government tried to achieve peace with the Taliban through its foreign policy. First, the Afghan government decided to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table with the mediation of Pakistan and China, but this policy has failed up until now.
The process reached a deadlock when the Afghan government, instead of an effective policy, chose war over peace, after the failure of peace efforts through foreign policy. Therefore, given the past experiences, the only solution for the Afghan issue is peace and reconciliation, and the continuation of the war policy will create even more obstacles on the way of peace and security in the country.
The role of the regional countries: the cooperation or lack of collaboration of the regional countries is directly related to the security situation in the country. After the establishment of the US military based and the emergence of ISIL in the country, some regional countries and particularly Russia repeatedly criticized the US strategies against “terrorism”. On the other hand, NATO and the US accused Russia of supporting the Taliban, and the Afghan and American officials are concerned about Russia’s relations with the Taliban.
The confrontation of the countries in the region not only faces Afghanistan with challenges but also other countries in the region, and turns Afghanistan into a battleground for prolonged proxy wars.
[1] Kalid Group, «طارق شاهبهرامی: در ۲۳ ولایت کشور جنگ جریان دارد» [Tariqshah Bahrami: war continues in 23 provinces of the country], 23 Assad 1396 solar year:
http://tkg.af/%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%82-%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%87%E2%80%8C%D8%A8%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-23-%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%DA%A9%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%AC%D8%B1%DB%8C/
[2] 8am, «گزارش تکان دهندۀ سیگار از میزان تلفات نیروهای امنیتی» [SIGAR’s shocking report about the casualties of the security forces], 11 Assad 1396 solar year: http://8am.af/1396/05/11/a-shocking-report-of-cigarettes-on-the-casualties-of-the-security-forces/
[3] CSRS, «افزایش تلفات نیروها چالشی برای حکومت» [The increased casualties of the security forces; a challenge for the government], 15 Aqrab 1395 solar year: https://csrskabul.com/pa/?p=3131
[4] VOA, «یوناما: در شش ماه گذشته بیش از ۱۶۶۰ غیرنظامی افغان کشته شد» [UNAMA: more than 1660 Afghan civilians are killed in the past six months], 26 Saratan 1396 solar year: