WeeklyAnalysis – Issue no: 29

 

The publication contains analysesby Center for Strategic and Regional Studies regarding security, economic, political and cultural issues in Afghanistan that happened in previous week, so that the policy makers and institutions may take advantage of it.

Afghanistan in previous week:

President Karzai’s visit to India and his demands from the country was one of the hot issues of the previous week. The analysts view that Karzi’s visit has been carried out as a reaction based on the need. The Afghan government aims to pressurize Pakistan by doing so, to change its policies regarding Afghanistan. The analysts opine that chanting anti Pakistani slogans from Indian Tribune will cause problems for Afghanistan. The complete analysis of the topics are in the next pages.

Ahmad Saeedi: Anti Pakistani Slogan from Indian Tribune to Cause Problems

Fox News reported based on the Afghan presidential office statement that the Afghan president met Indian president Pranab Mukherjee and the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh separately on Thursday night. Both sides exchanged views on bilateral ties, future of security and stability in Afghanistan after 2014, and the regional issues. Both leaders discussed the cooperation between them in security, defense and economic sections.

Afghan political expert, Ahmad Saeedi views: “President Karzai’s visit to India was based on reaction and need. You know that President Asif Ali Zardari promised after his meeting with president Karzai in London on the mediation of PM David Cameron that he would cooperate with Afghan peace process within six months, but nothing has been done. After that president Karzai had a visit to Brussels where he met Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Pervez Ashfaq Kayani, but the president returned disappointed. The Pakistani authorities had some demands, which were difficult for president to fulfill. On the other hand, Pakistan initiated some border clashes and finally did not carry out their promises. As a result, India remained as the only chance for president Karzai. President Karzai refused to recognize Durrand Line, but his strategic partners openly announced that they recognize Durrand Line. India remained the only beacon of hope for Karzai, India is both, opponent of Pakistan and a regional military, economic and political power. That’s why, president Karzai wants to pressurize Pakistan by nearing to India, to bring changes in Pakistani policy. But I think, the brilliant and wise policies that exist in India, it would not express regarding Durrant Line. And also India’s stand regarding Karzia’s demands of military aids will be studied and they would decide later. On the other hand, Karzai’s visit to India became under the shadow of Chinese Leader’s visit to that country. Karzai should have paid a visit in some other time. It is known that China and India have disputes in their relations, and it could cast shadow on Karzai’s visit, because Indo-China relations are more important than Afhgan-India.

I think Afghanistan needs a balanced relation with its neighbors. We should keep in view our national interests in the relations with both sides. I mean, we should not stick in Iran-US and Pak-India enmities. Afghanistan should pursue a balanced politics and the regional integration, so that the neighbors will be sure that Afghanistan pursues only its national interests. I think, if we chant anti-Pakistan slogans from Indian Tribune it would be problematic and dangerous for Afghanistan.  President Karzai should understand that Afghanistan is unfortunately chess-board of different players, that’s why he should take care of his actions not to make neighbors defeat each other in the chess-board of Afghanistan.

MNAs: Independent and Authoritative Organ should scrutinize the accusations

Some members of Afghanistan Parliament that have been accused by finance minister for misuse of their portfolio and contraband have demanded an independent organ to scrutinize the accusations. The finance minister, Omar Zakhailwal disclosed the names of some MNAs, which he accused for contraband and misuse of the portfolio.

Hamdullah Faiq, political analyst views in this regards: “The accusation of MNAs by ministers and ministers by MNAs became a hot issue of national and international media.

The question is that why the Afghan government doesn’t express strict reaction in this regard.

The severe weakness inside Afghan government caused the government to lose the capacity to trail corrupt authorities. It can have many causes. The absence of a powerful administration to monitor all governmental and private organs is cause of corruption. Such an administration can not prevent corruption.

The other reason is that the legal organs of the country themselves are corrupt. No one can believe on these organs. How can the government scrutinize such issues through these legislative organs and bring them to trail justly and transparently.

The third reason is that the president himself has received money from different sides through illegal ways. The recent disclosure of money that the president had received from CIA that is still not clear where it has been spent, which heartens rest of the corrupt authorities in executive and legislative organs.

Finally we can conclude that the absence of a powerful mechanism for accountability is the reason that most of the people misuse their portfolios and are not brought to trial. It is also the reason that emerged space between the government and the people widens day by day.

 

Long-Term Military Bases and US Dumb stand

By: Zakir Jalaly

The US long-term military bases in Afghanistan have been in the headlines of media for two years. The issue was posed once again last week when president Karzai disclosed US demands.  Karzai said in the 80th anniversary of Kabul University: “Today the united states has its own demands and Afghanistan its own. We have our own interests. We try to have a balanced partnership in the interest of both the countries. Afghanistan needs to be secure, we want US train our military, to have powerful economy, to have powerful government, we have a unique nation, but our government is week, its governmental institutions are week. The US demands for nine military bases in capital Kabul, Bagram, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad, Gardiz, Kandahar, Helmand, Shindand and Heart.”

President Hamid Karzai signed a strategic treaty with US in last May. He will sign the security treaty too. As Karzai disclosed that US demands for nine military bases, on the other hand, vice US ambassador in Kabul, considered Krzais expressions, “wrong”. Last week, it was clear from Karzai’s expressions that he would sign the next treaty too. Karzai said: “We agree to give them nine bases, we accept the presence of foreigners after 2014, but they should try for our security from the core of their heart.” It is clear from Karzai’s statements that he would sign it, too. “Trying from the core of their heart for security” is not a condition.

WaheedMuzhda, a Kabul based analyst and writer says: “Since US is going to leave Afghanistan, it has two ways; the continuation of war through Afghanization of the war, it would also mean the defeat of US and NATO. In this case, the casualties of the foreigners may decrease, but the burden of its finance is again on US shoulders. The second way is dialogue with the military opposition of the government. And they totally want their withdrawal, so that it would be possible to make an acceptable government for all sides. It looks that the second option is still on the table, that’s why it is not ready to clearly say that it wants long-term bases in Afghanistan. Some diplomatic channels had some expressions in this regard that within two months or 6 weeks Afghanistan will witness a crucial change which will change the status quo.”

Karzai’s expressions and the US rejections show that the Americans have not reached to a conclusion yet. As Mr. Muzhda says, the US may express its stand within six weeks.