Recent Instabilities: Factors & Conspiracies
Since the formation of National Unity Government (NUG) and especially with the beginning of spring season insecurities have been increased in the country. The recent wave of instabilities encompasses northern Afghanistan from the southern already insecure.
Experts believe that the internal and external policies of NUG, conspiracies of regional and international players are the main reasons.
Internal Policy
Since the formation of NUG, some decisions have been taken that have affected stability and security of the country. Signing of BSA (Bilateral Security Agreement), expansion of military operation, internal disagreements, failure in the formation of cabinet are the prominents.
“Bilateral Security Agreement” with US
President Ashraf Ghani promised during his election campaign that he would postpone BSA. One of these personalities who met Taliban in Qatar weeks before told CSRS with the condition of anonymity that President Ghani has promised the same with Taliban in Qatar. But contrary to the promises, hours after taking over, the controversial BSA was signed with theUS and another hurdle was added in the way of peace. It gave another incentive for Taliban to fight.
With the start of Taliban spring season operations which they call Azm (resolve) have been able to face some northern provinces with the threat of falling to Taliban control. Taliban said in the announcement of the operation that they would target foreign military, intelligence and diplomatic institutions and Afghan officials, military and army because the US have not ended their military operations in Afghanistan as it has been said.
Taliban said in their statement: “the occupation forces have declared end of their military mission, though they have control over the land and air of Afghanistan. Their presence is same as military occupation era, they are present in political, propaganda, cultural and educational sectors under the title of BSA. Their night raids and drone attacks against civilians are still going on”.
In Pugwash conference too, Taliban considered signing BSA as barrier of peace: “Unfortunately, whenever the Islamic Emirate has taken any step towards peace, in response, it has been halted by signing agreements like BSA and strategic partnership”. Since Taliban are considered the sole factor of insecurity, therefore, signing BSA is considered continuation of war instead of peace.
Military Operations
Defense ministry of Afghanistan announced anti-Taliban operations in Helmand, Ghazni, Wardak and Logar provinces, before Taliban announced their spring operations. As a result of government operations many people have been arrested.
The operations have affected the expanding insecurities in the country: it provoked the reaction of Taliban from one side and it brought clashes to the north of the country from the other side. Pakistani troops had started intense military operation against Uzbek, Chechnyan and rest of the groups, as a result these groups along Afghan Taliban moved to northern Afghanistan.
Foreign Policy
Though Ashraf Ghani still tries to have a balanced foreign policy, his close relations with Pakistan, especially asking Pakistan for peace is considered another reason behind the recent insecurities. Taliban have been trying for several years to be free from Pakistan leverage. Therefore, in 2007 a key Taliban figure, Mullah Obaidullah was detained by Pakistan and was killed in 2010. Later on, Pakistan arrested brothers of Taliban political office Chief, Taib Agha to exert pressures on the group. Collectively, around 22 key Taliban have been killed in Pakistani jails.
Taliban are not happy with the foreign policy pursued by Ashraf Ghani, because it has created a mentality among Afghans that Pakistan will force surrender Taliban to Kabul and peace will be attained. Taliban, therefore, began their spring operations in full intensity to show that they are not under Pakistan control.
International Factors
When Karachi airport was attacked by Pakistani Taliban and Azerbaijan Islamic Movement on June 8, 2014, Pakistan Army started military operation on June 15, 2014 in Waziristan and rest of the tribal areas under the title of Zarb-e-Azb.
As a result of the operations many Chechnyans, Uzbek, Uyghur and Tajik fighters were forced to move to northern Afghanistan.
ISIS
Presence of ISIS in Afghanistan is still a dilemma although many Afghan officials including President Ghani expressed their views on ISIS presence. Many members of National Assembly think that ISIS is a project of regional intelligence agencies to insecure Central Asia. National security advisor, Hanif Atmar agreed with this notion.
Until now, it is only clear that ISIS appointed its local Amir for Khurasan. Even though there is nothing more than a few videos regarding their activities.Jalalabad deadly attack was linked to ISIS in the beginning, but later on it was rejected by ISIS itself.
ISIS has no clear activity in Afghanistan, still the group is considered a factor of insecurities. Afghan officials also have statements about it, but the war in the country is being fought by Taliban and Hizb-e-Islami.
Afghan officials give such statements due to the following reasons:
- To attract foreign aids under the name of fight against ISIS and to extend the period of foreign troops in Afghanistan;
- To exploit ISIS as a pressure against Taliban.
Regarding ISIS presence in Afghanistan, analysts are of the view that the country is once again victim of international conspiracy where the US wants to suppress its rivals around the region.
Besides, Russia sometimes express its concerns regarding ISIS in Afghanistan. When Chechnyan and Uzbek fighters moving towards the north, it looks like Russia is paying the price of Ukraine.
The End