Kabul-Delhi Ties and the Afghan CEO’s visit to India

Afghanistan has long historical relations with India. At the time of Hamid Karzai’s Presidency in Afghanistan, the relations between the two countries were so good; however, after the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), these relations were deteriorated for a few months but due to the bilateral visits paid by the senior official of both sides these relations once again begun to improve.

Dr. Abdullah the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Afghanistan arrives in India on his four-day visit on 31 January 2016. During his stay in India, Dr. Abdullah met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Indian Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. He also participated in the counter-terrorism conference held in Jaipur aiming for further cooperation to tackle terrorism in the region and in addition he also attended an economic conference organized over Chabahar Port.

In this issue of the Weekly Analysis, we have analyzed the background of the relations between Afghanistan and India, the bilateral ties during Karzai’s presidency and after the formation of the NUG and the impact of Afghan CEO’s visit to India over the present and future of the bilateral ties is also discussed. 

The Historical Background of Afghan-Indian Relations

Afghanistan and India have had close and friendly ties throughout the history due to travels of merchants to each other’s countries. In the first half of the twentieth century, when India got Independence from Great Britain, Afghanistan quickly recognized its independence and later sent its first ambassador Najeebullah Khan to India in 1949.

During the Cold War, both countries didn’t become a member of capitalist or communist blocks and instead they along with some other countries formed a “non-alignment movement” but after the soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the relations between the two nations (not governments) became deteriorated. While during Afghan Civil War, Indian involvements in Afghanistan were rather more of interventionist in nature. ; And when the Taliban regime collapsed and instead Karzai’s government was established, the bilateral relations between the two countries once again revived.

Kabul-Delhi Ties during Karzai’s Presidency

Afghanistan and India have long-standing historical, political, economic and cultural relations. Although, the bilateral relations have also experienced ups and downs in the past years, but in the modern history of Afghanistan, the relation between the two countries were rather warm, except during the Taliban regime.

During the Taliban regime, diplomatic relations between Afghanistan and India were broken but when Hamid Karzai came to power and the Northern alliance was vastly represented in the “Interim Government of Afghanistan”, the diplomatic relation with “New Delhi” was once again became warmed.

In the Karzai Administration, the relations between the two countries were improved but in the second term of his presidency the relations between the two countries were much better than compared to his first term as in 13 years of his rule in Afghanistan. Karzai has had 14 official visits to India; however, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had also come to Afghanistan in 2005 and put the foundation of the new building of the Afghan parliament.

In order to improve and close relations, Indian Consulates were established in Herat, Kandahar and Mazar-e Sharif. On the basis of a Trade Agreement with Afghanistan, the Indian customs duty on Afghan exports was reduced and partially removed.

Since 2001, India, as the sixth largest donor to Afghanistan, has spent $2 billion for economy, security and building infrastructures in Afghanistan. India constructed “Zaranj-Dellaram Highway” in Karzai’s presidency (2009) which connects Afghanistan through Iran to India and the construction of Salma Dam and the new building of Afghan Parliament were also commenced in the same period. India also won the contract of Hajigak iron-ore in Afghanistan; thousands of civil and military Afghans went to India for educations and training, India signed the strategic agreement with Afghanistan in 2011 to promote further relations between the countries, the agreement was signed on the basis of the provisions of the friendship agreement between the two countries in 4 January 1950. The implementation of this agreement will increase India’s role in security and economy in Afghanistan.

Kabul-Delhi Ties During the National Unity Government

Ashraf Ghani had announced his foreign policy doctrine in his election manifesto (Tahawol Wa Tadawom) (Change and Continuity), and when he was sworn in as the President of Afghanistan, he insisted on this foreign policy and still is pursuing it.

However, India was in Ghani’s fourth circle of foreign policy (Asia), but now and then, he iterates India to be in the first circle of his foreign policy (neighbors) and has declared the relations with India as valuable.

Ashraf Ghani made his first visit to India in May 2015. Later, the Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar visited India in February in the same year and then Hekmat Khalil Karzai went to India to discuss the implementation of the strategic agreement between the two countries.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first visit to Kabul in late 2015 to inaugurate the building of the new Afghan Parliament. India has spent $220 million in construction of the building for new Afghan parliament and $300M for Salma hydroelectric dam.

Although, due to Ghani’s risky outreach to Pakistan, the Afghan-Indian relations were deteriorated but after the visits of senior officials of the two countries from Afghanistan and India the relations were improved.

Abdullah’s recent visit to India

This is the second time that Chief Executive Officer visits India, earlier in March 2015 Dr. Abdullah Abdullah had a visit to India which was rather a non-official trip but he also met some senior officials in the country including Indian Vice President.

Due to the meetings with Indian senior officials including Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Indian Minister of External Affairs, Sushma Swaraj and the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. The recent visit of the Chief Executive Officer is more valuable than his former visit to India. The issues discussed in the meeting of Dr. Abdullah with Indian senior officials were focused on three key points:

• The implementation of the Strategic Agreement between Kabul and Delhi.
• Cooperation between Afghanistan, India and Iran over Chabahar port.
• Inking the political and economic agreements between the two countries.

In his meetings with Indian officials, Dr. Abdullah stressed on the implementation of the Strategic Agreement between Afghanistan and India and said that, in this regard, Afghanistan is prepared. (However India has previously tried to put the Chabahar port in use but due to the broken relations between USA and Iran, the USA pressured India to stop efforts in this regard.) The pressure by US was due to the deteriorated relation of the country with Iran over the Atomic programs of Iran. Afghan Chief Executive Officer in his meetings with Indian officials wanted to speed up the works over Chabahar port and he said that he hopes that Iran, Afghanistan and India will cooperate in this regard with each other.

During this trip, two political and economic agreements were also signed between Kabul and Delhi. The first provides visa-free travels for Diplomats, and the other agreement was about the expansion of trade between the countries, the visa-free travel for diplomats is an achievement of this trip and it is the sign of better relations between the two countries.

India is concerned about the vast role of Pakistan in Afghanistan’s issues and after the initiation of the quadrilateral peace talks with the innovation of Pakistan, these concerns were increased; the Afghan government now wants to eliminate or reduce these concerns.

Balance in relations with India and Pakistan

Keeping balance in the relations with India and Pakistan has always been a difficult task to perform in foreign relations of the country. From 2001 to 2009 Afghanistan had maintained better relation with both countries. When the Taliban aggravated their military operations, it put deep impacts over the foreign policy of Karzai and doubts over Pakistan’s ambitions were increased and thus Afghanistan had approached to India. The intervention of the US in the Afghan Presidential Elections in 2009 also effected Afghan foreign policy.

Afghan government asked for military cooperation of India in 2013 and specially the demand for purchasing heavy weapons from India. However, India’s response to this request was negative but still the relations were good between the countries.

After the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), the Afghan foreign policy was changed and thus Ashraf Ghani approached Pakistan to achieve its assistance in the Afghan peace process. One of the important steps held by Ashraf Ghani was to postpone the request for purchasing heavy weapons. That was the reason behind the cold relations between Afghanistan and India, but when Afghanistan became disappointed from the insincere cooperation of Pakistan in the peace process, he tried to improve his relations with India, then.

On 27 April 2015, Ashraf Ghani went on his first visit to India and reduced the mistrust between the two countries. And beside the other achievements of his visit, the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi also accepted previous requests of the Afghanistan about the heavy weapons and asked Ghani to provide India a list of the Military needs of Afghanistan. This visit of Ashraf Ghani was also considered as he wanted to put pressure on Pakistan. Later in Hanif Atmar’s visit to India, the handing over of four military M-25 helicopters was announced; Narendra Modi’s visit to Afghanistan was also deemed as an alarm for Pakistan.

However, the relation of Afghanistan is now better with both India and Pakistan but due to the past experience, we know that this balance in the relations will not last longer. The Afghan government has failed to maintain balance in the relations with Pakistan and India in the past one and a half decade, the relation with the two countries has always been used to put pressure on each other.

The Future of Kabul-Delhi Ties

Based on the NUG’s foreign policy, if someone study the Kabul-Delhi ties, s/he will find out that the relation between the two countries are recently improved compared to the first few months of its formation. On the other hand, India’s position is improving among the world’s countries and on the other hand India has some mutual interests with Afghanistan, thus the relations between the two countries have begun to improve.

Besides that, India has doubled its assistance to Afghanistan and thus, it has invented to keep Afghanistan stand with India for a long period; however, if positive changes were occurred in Pak-Afghan relations, the outcomes would be different.

Since the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have not have any noticeable achievement, such a change will require decades to reduce mistrust and suspicion in the relations, thus India does not need to be concerned about its relations with Afghanistan.

The End