Afghan Government Peace Efforts; from Riyadh to Delhi & Beijing

 

Recently, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah visited Saudi Arabia and India; in the meantime, ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan organized a seminar in Kabul with the participation of some Chinese officials.

The main goal behind Ghani and Abdullah’s visits and the seminar in foreign affairs ministry was to gain support of the regional countries to the peace process of Afghanistan. President Ghani asked Saudi officials to exert pressure on Pakistan to cooperate in Afghan peace process.

 

The Dilemma of Fresh Peace Talks

Since the Pakistani Military officials in their latest visits to Kabul promised that Afghan Taliban would soon start peace negotiation with Afghan government, some rumors swirled around in the media about the peace process but Taliban has termed all such reports as rumors.

Previously, usually the spokespersons of Taliban used to publish newsletters in refusal of such rumors, but this time, the Taliban political office in Qatar, in an unprecedented action, rejected any type of contacts with Afghan Government. Although peace is considered as long-waited wish of the Afghan people, but ending Afghanistan’s occupation is the main precondition for peace negotiation since so far.

The statement in which the recent peace talks called as rumors or “Propaganda War” and moreover, it expressed that there have not been any peace talks and no one was appointed for continuing the talks. If any peace talks are to be held, the process would not be covert and Taliban Office in Qatar would inform people regarding any development, the statement maintained.

Therefore, one party of peace talks (The Taliban) regarded their talks with the Afghan Government as “Propaganda War” and defeat of their enemy in the war.

 

Giving information or publicizing rumors?

Since the beginning of these rumors, Pakistani media agencies have been the sole reference of peace talks and they have always quoted ambiguous sources. Then, based on the mentioned sources, the Afghan media quotes the peace related news and as a result, some political analysts even criticize President Ghani for the “covert” talks that are not clear where they took place.

Pakistani media spread rumors while their country’s commitments regarding peace talks are under question. In latest instance, Pakistani media considered the delay in starting peace talks was due to the internal disputes among Taliban regarding the peace talks between Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansoor and Mullah Zakir. The first one supports peace talks while the other one is against it, media reported.

 

If Taliban obey Pakistan Commands!

Taliban are a more religious movement with their very particular beliefs rather than being a political group. Their vision of war is completely different compared to the conventional standards of war and peace among the political groups. The Taliban never consider success in negotiation by getting more seats in power. They believe success is to implement Sharia in the political system of Afghanistan. The members of the movement are ready to offer sacrifices very easily for this cause.

If we suppose that the Taliban agree with what Pakistan demands, and set around the negotiations table for power sharing with Afghan Government, what would be the fate of the group?

During the last 13 years, Taliban leaders assured that they do not have any other goal rather than the liberation of Afghanistan from US occupation and the implementation of Sharia. Now, if their leaders join peace talks with the Afghan government, the fellow fighters of the group would think that the 13 years’ war waged against Americans was under the command of Pakistan and their leaders were impotent. This would have only one outcome that the fighters would take their own ways from their leaders which will pave the ground for ending the Taliban scenario as a military power forever.

The IS (Daesh) group which has just started its propaganda war by kidnapping the 31 Shia Hazaras from Kabul-Kandahar highway, puts Taliban in a sensitive situation. In such a condition, their simple mistake would pave the way for their fighters to join IS which would make the clash inevitable between the two groups.

On the other side, the US does not have a stable stance regarding its troops pull-out from Afghanistan. There are even rumors, that the US use IS presence as pretext for its continuing presence in Afghanistan.

Therefore, if Taliban consider the rumors of peace talks as “Propaganda War” besides expressing willingness for peace talks, how would they be really joining negotiations? In prevailing scenario, doing so would be considered as a suicide.

 

Taliban, the “Real Enemy”

The disputes over the peace talks inside the Afghan government are higher than that of Taliban. The pre-conditions from pro government figures that the group should accept the constitution completely, means that Taliban must agree with the prevailing system. If Taliban agree with this condition, the leaders would face the question of their fellow fighters “if the system has not had any legitimate deficiency why we waged war against it for 13 years?” Some Sharia-related questions will pose whether the war has been Jihad or insurgency ? Their fellow fighters were killed or martyred?

On the other hand, there is no united stance inside Afghan government regarding peace talks with Taliban. When Zahir Tanin, the permanent Afghan envoy in UN calls Taliban the real enemy, there is no way for peace talks!

 

Afghan authorities’ visits: the goals and outcomes

The reasons of Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah’s visits and outcomes.

When Pakistan promised the new Afghan government that it would make Taliban set around the negotiations table, some Afghan personalities expressed doubts about Pakistan’s commitment and the country’s changed stance was considered a new game. Now, it looks like President Ghani also gradually reached to the same conclusion. His visit to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was to ask the Kingdom to use their influence over Pakistan to hold on its promises to bring the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table.

From the other side, it is thought that the visit of National Unity Government’s chief executive was based on the invitation of an Indian newspaper, but it can have a message to Pakistan that in case of no cooperation, Afghanistan still enjoys close relations with India.

Meanwhile , a joint session of talks was held in Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Afghanistan with number of Chinese officials . The participants once again emphasized on China’s role in Afghan peace process, because it has influence over Pakistan. It means China should ask Pakistan to remain committed to its promises. But, will the visit have beneficial outcomes for Afghanistan and can they pressurize Pakistan? Looks not likely based on what we have said earlier.

The End