NUG Leaders Visit to US: What People Expect?

 

 

 

In late 2014 when a government under the title of “National Unity Government” or NUG formed in Afghanistan, the news of President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to US started to spread. It was also said that the trip would take place in January 2015.

But it seems that the time frame should not be taken serious for implementation of works in NUG. There was time specified for the establishment of the government, formation of the cabinet, president’s trip to the U.S. and some other important tasks to be done, but those tasks were postponed. Based on these facts we should not trust the timeframe of the government for implementation of specific tasks.

If we trust the sources that are so close to Ex-president Hamid Karzai, like the other issues, about the trip to the U.S. there was a difference between both the leaders of the NUG. From the capacity of the plane that will take the delegation to the U.S. up to the meeting of Obama, which is planned that only Ashraf Ghani will meet him, and the CEO warned that if he is not let to join the meeting he will boycott the trip.

So delaying trip is “natural”, as the trip of the Excellency to Iran, which was planned to take place in February, was also postponed because of the avalanche. So “Natural Disasters” also can influence the diplomacy and politics of Afghanistan.

 

The Afghanistan-US Relations:

Since the US invasion of Afghanistan and oust of Taliban regime with the UN Security Council permission, the relations between Afghanistan and the US was of a dominant and a dominated country. When the Republicans were in white house, the relations were very cordial. But the US military practices, and not taking account of Pakistan interventions in Afghanistan gradually made Afghan government criticize US policy which finally deteriorated the relations.

Hamid Karzai was asking the U.S. to put pressure over Pakistan to stop supporting the Taliban. But the U.S. did not pay any attention to his demand. Due to the civilian casualties in the rural areas of the country, the criticism of the U.S. by Karzai has gradually became obvious, and the attempts of the then U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke for marginalizing Karzai in Presidential Election, faced extreme reactions of Karzai. The relations gradually reached up to the point that during his last days of his presidency Karzai refused to sign B.S.A. with the U.S.

 Therefore, the main goal of the trip of the leaders of the NUG to the U.S. can be reconstruction of relations with the U.S., which was damaged during Karzai’s regime.

At the second day of the new government, President Ashraf Ghani signed B.S.A. with the U.S. to get trust of the U.S.

 

Program of the Trip to the US:

There is no doubt that the trip will take place in 2015, and the other point that no one should doubt is that Ashraf Ghani will not be alone in this trip.  The CEO Abdullah Abdullah will accompany him, because he is the representative of half of the governmental power of the country. The success of the trip is subject to a well formed agenda and program.  

Based on the demand of Ashraf Ghani, since coming to the power, about reviewing the date for the exit of the foreign forces from Afghanistan, we can say that one of the demands of Ashraf Ghani from the U.S. will be this one. Nevertheless, during the last two years we have seen propagations regarding the capacity of Afghan security forces. Even the foreigners expressed that they have full confidences.  But in war fields there have been a lot of problems faced by ANA. President believes that even the unarmed presence of foreigners in the country can boost the morale of Afghan Armed Forces.

On the other hand, with the start activities of Islamic State (Daesh) in Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani will ask the U.S. to take serious measures for strengthening and training Afghan Forces, especially to equip the Air Forces of Afghanistan with fighter planes.

Though President Ashraf Ghani signed B.S.A. with the U.S. but there are many ambiguities in it, in which the U.S. did not give any stable promise for cooperating Afghanistan. It is in such a condition that in last one year the casualty of the Afghan Forces increased, and escape of the forces also challenged these forces. Discussing these issues may be a part of the agenda of the negotiations.

 

Long term Economic Assistance:

The success of NUG is bound to the foreign aids and cooperation. In last thirteen years the economy of the country is addicted to pumping money from abroad. The unemployment rate after 2014 is unprecedented in last thirteen years, it increased and the income of the country is being decreased, to the extent that in a few upcoming months the government will not be able to pay the salaries of its officials. It caused a big challenge to NUG.

The U.S. did not pay any attention to fundamental projects investments in Afghanistan in last thirteen years; so it is difficult for Ashraf Ghani to convince the U.S. to invest in this field in Afghanistan, because US is busy with challenges in other countries. But, if he is able to convince Washington to continue its half-done projects in Afghanistan, it will be more than enough for him. Though it is said that if Hamid Karzai kept close relationships with the U.S., still Afghanistan would be in the priorities list of the U.S., but the fact is that even if he kept close relationships with the U.S., because of the evolutions in the global politics still Afghanistan would not be in the priority list of the U.S.

But the U.S. can cooperate strengthening the economy of Afghanistan through other ways, those ways are putting political and economic pressure for speeding up some commercial and transit projects like; Lajaward Way, CASA1000, and TAPI, which pass through Afghanistan, even the implementation of these projects need peace and security.

 

Peace Process

Another essential topic that would be discussed between the leaders of the NUG and the U.S. it will be peace process. Many times Ashraf Ghani said that without peace the development of the country is impossible.

Though Pakistan promised that it will bring the Taliban for peace negotiation, and Ashraf Ghani also declared that during last three decades Afghanistan never comes as close to peace as now, but gradually there are some events risen up that under questions the trust over Pakistan for cooperating the peace process.

If before the visits of Ashraf Ghani to the U.S., the peace process start seriously as promised by Pakistan and authoritative representatives of the Taliban from the office of Qatar participate in it, so the trip of Ashraf Ghani to Washington will be in a reasonable time and he may have great achievements during this trip.

But, if Pakistan does not want or is not able to bring the Taliban for peace negotiations, it will be a huge setback of the NUG of Afghanistan; because Afghanistan has already given privileges to Pakistan and did not get anything from the other side. In this condition, Ashraf Ghani’s position in his trip to Washington will be so weak.

Although it is impossible that without the completion of the cabinet Ashraf Ghani will go to the U.S., but the completion of the cabinet is not the only demand of the U.S. The U.S. wants the Afghan Government to take serious measures against corruption. In the future none of the country will cooperate Afghanistan, which is famous for corruption, as they did earlier.

The experiences have proved that till Afghanistan does not have serious decisions for struggle against corruption, good governance, struggle against poverty and unemployment, struggle against narcotics, and peace and security, the international aids will not solve any problem of the country.