The New Afghan-US Friendship: Hopes & Concerns

 

Since Afghan President Mohammad Ashraf Ghani took power in the last September, he made effort in his first visit to United States of America to repair the strained relations between the two countries and attract urgent aides from its strategic partner.

President Ghani pays the visit in a time that the US foreign policy is dragged towards the incidents in Eastern Europe, Middle-East, and talks with Iran on its nuclear program. At the same time, it is expected that Taliban’s attacks in the summer may also increases.

 

Background of Bilateral relations:

At the end of World War II, the world witnessed another, but “Cold” war, which had great impacts on the world affairs. The relations between Afghanistan and the United States were strained due to Pakhtoonistan dispute – between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even though during that era, US supported Pakistan while USSR was in favor of Afghanistan. Nevertheless, US were too, after USSR, the second largest donor country to Afghanistan.

During USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan, due to the common enemy, US assisted Afghans to wage war against Soviet troops in Afghanistan. However, the assistance was suspended sharply after the withdrawal of Soviet Forces from Afghanistan in mid-February 1989. When Taliban took over in 1996, the suspended aids were turned into embargos and finally, after 9/11 incidents, US militarily invaded Afghanistan.

After the invasion of Afghanistan (Oct 2001), the relations between the then President Hamid Karzai and US government were very cordial. But it did not last longer. In January 2008, when Barak Obama won Presidential elections in the United States and then with the Karzai’s re-election in 2009’s controversial election, the relations started deteriorating due to few reasons: First, Karzai was more close to Republicans compared to Democrats. Second, based on Kai Eide’s book, Obama did not trust Karzai. There were some other reasons too, like corruption, large scale of frauds in 2009 election, violation of Afghan sovereignty, torturing, detaining, killing and bombardment of Afghan civilians.

 

Paradigm Shift in Afghan Foreign Policy:

The relations of Kabul with Washington and Islamabad were deeply strained during the last year of Hamid Karzai’s tenure. Karzai in his farewell speech too advised his successor to be careful while dealing with Pakistan and United States.

The deterioration of bilateral relations date back to 2008, when Barak Obama was elected as the president of United States and he started criticizing Karzai’s government. Later on, when the differences erupted between Hamid Karzai (the then president) and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah(his main rival in elections) over the allegations of fraud in election, US special envoy to Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke tried to intervene in the election process and form a coalition government between Karzai and Abdullah[1].

It was a turning point in Kabul’s foreign policy perspective, which inclined more towards India, Russia and China. From 2010 to 2014 Karzai paid several visits to China and in 2011 had a trip to Moscow. In the Loya Jirga (Grand Council), Karzai refused to sign the bilateral security agreement (BSA) with the United States. President Karzai bound BSA approval to peace and security in Afghanistan.

In September 2014, however, president Ghani signed the long delayed and much controversial bilateral security agreement within the first 24 hours of his government. Besides, the new National Unity Government of Afghanistan gave some unprecedented privileges to Pakistan. Ghani’s initiatives towards Pakistan were have been criticized even by former president as well.

In recent visit to Washington, the President has tried to repair the previously strained relations with the US. In his first ever address to joint session of congress and his gratitude of US presence and assistance with Afghanistan is considered to have improved the relations.

 

Hopes regarding Ashraf Ghani’s Visit:

As far it is concerned President Ghani had two aims from his visit to the US: first, to attract the financial aids of the US for his government, and secondly, to overcome the Taliban’s expected increase of insurgency in spring. Ashraf Ghani had asked US to keep 10,000 troops until the end of 2015 in Afghanistan, and slowdown the withdrawal process.

Ashraf Ghani had been to some extent successful in achieving these goals. President Obama announced to slowdown the withdrawal process. With it, Obama had decided to leave not less than 10,000 US troops until the end of 2015. Previously, US had announced to leave five thousand troops in Afghanistan until the end of 2015.

Moreover, US officials promised to ask the congress to approve $4 Billions to support the 352000 Afghan army. In addition, John Kerry, Secretary of State, had promised Ghani and Abdullah that US would assist Afghanistan up to $800 million per year.

 

Three-Dimensional Peace and War Policy:

Usually, in the last 14 years, we had witnessed a great deal of increase in insurgency during the spring season. It is the first time that the new Afghan government under Ashraf Ghani’s leadership will encounter Taliban attacks. Therefore, the unity government pursues a three dimensional policy:

1. Tries to talk to Taliban;
2. The government had relied too on military operations in Helmand and some other areas against Taliban in order to prevent Taliban’s spring assaults;
3. Thirdly, the Afghan government is pursuing a regional approach to pressurize not only Taliban, but also Pakistan to make Taliban to sit down at negotiation table.

 

Impacts of Visit on Peace & War

Currently, peace and reconciliation is on the top of foreign policy agenda.

From one side, the recent visit assured President Ghani regarding security, but it had increased the barriers in the path of negotiation with Taliban too. During the last 14 years, the armed opposition has not been suppressed in spite of all the military facilities with Afghan government and its international allies. Now, it does not likely seem to achieve soon and at least the remote areas will remain in Taliban’s control.

From the other side, having cordial relations and attracting US financial aids shows the pragmatic foreign policy, but the current policies of the government proves that the barriers in the path of peace are increasing and subsequently the war would continue as it is.

The leaders of NUG promised peoples over peace talks, but after six months, they have not succeeded to start negotiations. Taliban are also not ready to talk to Afghan government.

Some of the reasons are as follow:

• Ashraf Ghani singed BSA;
• The demand of leaving more US troops;
• Focusing on military operation against the armed opposition, instead of honest peace efforts.

President Ghani exaggerated in thanking US government and military and undermined the Afghans’ sacrifices. Ghani expressed as that BSA is a great help of US with Afghanistan, in spite not giving any solid privilege to Afghanistan. While the signature of BSA is one of the reasons of continuation of war in Afghanistan.

Afghan President paid visits to Pakistan and China, but the efforts look fruitless. Because, China and Pakistan looks failed in persuading Taliban to talk with Kabul. Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Raheel Sharif had promised that Taliban would sit down at negotiations table in mid-March; but his statement look too to have gone in vain. Besides, Taliban claims that they had just shared some issues with China regarding their stance, not peace talks.

 

[1] The details of the allegations have been mentioned in ‘Duty: Momoirs of a Secretory at War’ and Kai Kide’s Book.