The Afghan-Pak Relations and the new Government’s Regional Perspective
After his visit to China, President Ashraf Ghani said he is in the preparation to visit Pakistan, and it seems that he, who is newly elected as the president of Afghanistan, will have an official trip to Pakistan on 15th November. This visit will be his next visit after his Saudi and Chinese official visits. Therefore, going to Pakistan is not only valuable to Kabul, but it also shows the active diplomacy of the new government in order to achieve peace and stability.
Ashraf Ghani’s Pakistan visit is a hot topic in both Afghan and international media. Pakistanis’, especially their former diplomats, are hopeful about this visit, and they think that Ashraf Ghani’s trip will be helpful in constructing brotherly relationships between the two neighbors. There are also debates going on in Afghanistan related to Ashraf Ghani’s Pakistani Visit. For example, some of the members of Afghan Upper House emphasized that the issue of Pakistan’s missile attacks on the Afghan territory should be taken seriously.
On the other hand, the Pentagon, in its six-month report persuaded both, Afghanistan and Pakistan, to take serious steps to not only develop their bilateral relationships, but also improve peace and security. A question might arise why President Ghani choses Islamabad for his visit after his Saudi and Chinese visits? Will this trip play an active role in the development of bilateral relationships? And to which extent the relationships of Karzai’s government will influence the new government in its relations with Pakistan?
The Relations of President Karzai’s Government with Pakistan:
In 1980s and 1990s, the main focus of Pakistan’s policy about Afghanistan was based on “Strategic Depth”, to break up the collision of Kabul-Delhi against Pakistan; but, though India was one of the involved countries in the Afghan Civil War, still after the incident of 9/11 and the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, Delhi rejuvenated its soft power in Afghanistan by economic-trades and investments in this country, and according to one of the B.B.C. surveys India gained its status back in Afghanistan. That is why earlier the Indian Foreign Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh said that the “Indian” name itself is a passport in Afghanistan.
Pakistan is also afraid of the Indian factor in Afghanistan and blamed Indian Councils, especially the one in Ningarhar and Kandahar, to have her role in insurgency in Pakistan. Therefore Pakistan did not have close relationships with Afghanistan during Karzai’s regime; though Karzai said in his speeches, “Pakistan is our brother, and India is our close friend”.
Though Karzai had many trips to Pakistan; but its final result was that Karzai in his speech said that Pakistan want to control foreign policy of Afghanistan, especially Afghan foreign policy toward India. As Karzai in his interview with a famous Pakistani Journalist Salim Safai said that if Pakistan is under attack, Afghanistan will stand with Pakistan, therefore the Pakistani Diplomats did not trust Karzai.
Overall, the Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan entered dark stage during Karzai’s government due to the factors that are mentioned here:
- Usage of Afghan Land against Pakistan.
- Shelters of Afghan Taliban in Pakistan.
- Increasing activities of India in Afghanistan.
- Blaming Pakistan for terrifying and imprisoning the Taliban who want to negotiate with Afghan Government about peace.
- Afghan-Indian Strategic Agreement, and not only Afghanistan buys weapons from India, but also the Afghan National Army is trained by Indians.
- Missile attacks of Pakistan on the eastern parts of Afghanistan.
- Arise of the issue of Durand Line, and so on.
As in the same year the internal structures of government in Afghanistan and Pakistan replaced; Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad and Ashraf Ghani in Kabul became the rules, now both sides are trying to improve their relationship with each other. Pakistani diplomats also point to this point and writes in their articles that now untrusted Hamid Karzai has gone and Ashraf Ghani has come, so it is a great chance for improvement of the relations and both the parties should take advantages from it. In addition to slogans, expressions and mutual declarations, the actions will play an important role; because, if those activities were useful for improvement of relations, it would be improved by the trips of Hamid Karzai.
Regional Risks and Mutual Cooperation:
The shared history, geography, culture, and religion of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and economically dependent to each other, are the factors that oblige both the countries to have close and loyal relations. Due to the mentioned reasons, either both the countries want or not, they had and have to have great relations with each other.
While Cold War the relations of both the countries were not good, still they had commercial relations with each other. During the 13 years of Karzai’s government both the countries had complexity in their relations; still their commercial relations were above 2 billion dollars. Due to the mentioned reasons the peace and security of both the countries and region are related to each other and they need to have close relationship with each other. As much Pakistan take advantages of peace and security in Afghanistan, that much it will take advantages of the survival projects of the Central Asia.
Most of the regional challenges are also tied to each other. From Central Asia to South Asia, and from China to the Middle East, most of the countries have similar challenges and obstacles, which fighting with those challenges in each of the country requires the cooperation of the neighboring countries. Disputes on smuggling drugs, smuggling human beings, water, between Afghanistan and Pakistan, India and Pakistan, some other countries in the Middle East, struggle against fundamentalism, and so on could be some of the examples.
It seems that President Ashraf Ghani is also concerned about this point, and may concentrate on such regional cooperation. Related to the suicide attack in Waga Border of Pakistan, in which there were many people killed a few days ago, in a presidential newsletter it was mentioned that President Ashraf Ghani said that such regional challenges need serious, mutual cooperation and compromises.
Overall, all the regional countries, especially Pakistan-India-Afghanistan, should work on long term projects that are beneficial for all the countries in the region, and each country should know the limits of the interests of other countries.
The Active Diplomacy of Kabul for Peace:
As President Ashraf Ghani has given the priority to peace in the country; so after his election as the president of the country, he started attempts of expansion of relations with the key players of the peace in the country (Turkey, China, Saudi, and Pakistan).
President Ashraf Ghani in the fourth conference of the Heart of Asia (Istanbul Process), in which the officials of 14 countries including Iran, Pakistan and India participated, also said “Peace is our foundational priority, we ask the political opponents, including the Taliban, to participate in the inter-Afghani consensus, and also ask the international community to support the peace process of Afghanistan.”
Though President Ashraf Ghani did not give any details about the peace plan; but according to many analysts, he has chosen an active diplomacy for the peace, and will reach peace through new ways and new plans. The strong idea about his peace plan is that Saudi, Turkey, and China have given strong promises to him about the peace process; therefore he points the armed opponents of the government differently. He, different from other Afghan leaders and the former president, points to the Taliban as political opponents and call them unhappy brothers.
The support of those countries is clear from the speech of President Ashraf Ghani, which was given after his trip to China. He said that the idea of the government about the peace is expanded; though it is not yet clear that what did he mean by expansion? But by mentioning the name of China, he said that when a problem involves three parties, it is not between two countries (the Chinese officials are also concerned about the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan that will influence Xinjiang State of China, and China will never stay silent.”
Some analysts believe that though China knows that Pakistan is involved in some activities in Xinjiang, still it does not force Pakistan, so why will it force Pakistan for the sake of Afghanistan?
Though it is a historical and logical reason; but compared to its earlier stages china is enthusiastic to the Afghan peace for:
- The new map of the new Silk Way, and the “Movement toward West” of the new policies of the Afghan leaders are visible.
- The security condition of Badakhshan Province is getting wore day by bay, which is an extreme concern for China because of the issue of Xinjiang.
- The head of the Al-Qaida Aiman Al Zawaheri also declared war against China.
Due to the three mentioned reason, China want to show enthusiasm for peace in Afghanistan.
The End