The fate of the High Peace Council (HPC)
Head of the National Islamic Front (Mahaz-e-Meli Islami-e-Afghanistan) and head of the High Peace Council (HPC) Sayed Ahmad Gailani, due to the heart illness, died at age 84 in Ghazi Amanullah Khan Hospital.
Sayed Ahmad Gailani was the third head of HPC. The HPC did not have any achievements in the past years except for the peace deal between the Afghan government and Hezb-e-Islami (HI).
The role of HPC in the Afghan peace process under Gailani’s leadership, evaluation of peace efforts, the fate of the peace agreement between Hezb-e-Islami and the Afghan government, and the future of HPC are issues that are analyzed here.
The evaluation of the HPC
Seven years passed since the formation of the HPC, but if one evaluates its role in the peace process, one will find out that its peace efforts can be classified into three categories:
- This council joined a number of people under the name of armed oppositions of the government and commanders with the peace process;
- It had limited achievements in the peace talks with the armed oppositions of the government.
- It has played a role in the peace agreement with HI.
First; based on the official statistics, between 2010 and the third quarter of 2015, HPC has joined about 10578 armed individuals with the peace process, 988 of whom were group leader. These people also submitted 8101 heavy and light weapons to the Afghan government. However, it must be noted that these statistics are official statistics and no independent institution has confirmed it. Raising a question, some people also criticize the HPC, whether really this number of people have joined the peace process or this process have been politically dealt with or officials have distributed money among their supporters under the name of peace with the armed opposition of the government?
Second; even though HPC has not been able to bring the Taliban leaders to the negotiation table, but the Afghan government has had conducted some direct talks with the Taliban in Urumqi and Murree. However, neither these meetings were HPC initiative nor did they have desiring outcomes in the peace process.
HPC under the leadership of the Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani
The first head of the HPC was Ustad Burhanuddin Rabbani and after his death, his son Salahuddin Rabbani was appointed as the chairman of HPC. HPC had no leader for one year when, after the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), Salahuddin Rabbani was appointed as Minister of Foreign Affairs. Finally on 2 Hoat 1394 (solar year), simultaneous with the commencement of the quadrilateral meetings for the Afghan peace process, Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani was appointed as the head of the HPC.
Gailani had played a role in the Afghan Jihad, was a moderate, was not involved in the Afghan civil war, did not have any enmity with the Taliban, had some influence among the Taliban through his sufi order, and had expressed his condolences after the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar, therefore, he was a suitable choice to head HPC. These were the characteristics that a head of HPC must have, but his old age and illness were creating obstacles in the way of his work, that is why his son Sayed Hamid Gailani controlled the daily affairs.
After Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani’s appointment as the chief of HPC, the peace talks between Hezb-e-Islami and the Afghan government also started. Since the Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar and Gailani had played a key role in these talks, while singing the peace accord in the Afghan Presidential Office, the HI delegation particularly thanked Hanif Atmar, Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani as well as the Afghan President.
The fate of the HI-NUG peace deal
Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani was a proponent of the peace deal between the Afghan government and HI. Now, after his death, suspicions have increased about this deal and it comes at a time that after several months since the signature of the peace deal with HI, not even a single article of this deal is implemented.
Although, recently and particularly after the death of Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, the Afghan government made several remarks saying the peace deal will soon be implemented, they are committed to it and that its provisions will not change, but the three key articles of this deal, which are the removal of Hekmatyar’s name from the UN blacklist, releasing the HI prisoners and building refugee camps for the HI refugee, are yet to be implemented. Some foreign and internal circles had also created obstacles in the way of these talks. 100 HI prisoners, whose cases are finalized by the Afghan Attorney General Office, not initiative are taken to release them.
The future of HPC
After the death of Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, the future of HPC is questioned, given the following points:
- The high expenses of HPC;
- Its weak role in the peace process;
- Finding a suitable person to head HPC
First; there exist no exact statistics about the expenses of HPC, but still according to some institutions, the council has spent more than $872m on Afghanistan Peace and Reintegration Program (APRP).
Second; on the one hand, HPC has a weak role in the peace process and, on the other hand, the Afghan government have valued National Security Council and some senior Afghan officials’ efforts in the peace process in the past, therefore a question rises whether the government needs this council or not? It means that the Afghan government must fundamentally reconsider its peace agenda and, given the role that HPC has played in the peace process in the past, no matter how influential individual is appointed as the head of HPC, this council cannot play the role of a mediator in the peace process nor will desiring outcomes be achieved.
Third; if the government still emphasizes on the role of HPC in the peace process, appointing someone with similar characteristics as Gailani would be challenging. There are rumors that the Afghan President is seeking to appoint Sayed Ahmad Gailani’s son Sayed Hamid Gailani as the new chief of HPC, as after the death of Burnuddin Rabbani, the government had appointed his son as the head of HPC. On the other hand, the former Minister of Information and Culture Abdul Bari Jehani had written in his article that the Afghan government, at first, wanted to appoint Unis Qanoni as the chairman of HPC, but he had not accepted the little privileges that he could get from this council. Therefore, there is some possibility of this post, once again, being used as political bribe by the government.
The end