ISIL in Afghanistan: from emergence to expansion

 

21 people died and 41 others injured in a bloody attack in Kabul on 7 February 2017. The attack targeted the car park of the Supreme Court compound and the Khurasan branch of ISIL claimed responsibility for it.

One day after the attack, six Afghan workers for Red Cross were shot dead by unknown armed individuals and the local officials of this province said that they were killed by ISIL. However, in this regard, ISIL have not commented.

Although, after the confirmation of the emergence of ISIL in Afghanistan in 2015, the group had limited activities in this country, but since the past several months, the ISIL affiliated armed groups have been active in various areas of the country. One year after the beginning of this group’s activities in Afghanistan (in early 2016), the group was less active in this country, but the incidents in 2016 proved that the group is still a threat to the country and besides Afghanistan, the regional countries are also concerned.

Emergence of ISIL in Afghanistan, its activities in various areas of the country and reasons behind its expansion in the country are analyzed in this part of the analysis.

 

Emergence of the Khurasan branch of ISIL

After the opposition between the successor of the leader of Al-Qaeda in Iraq Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and al-Nusra Front, a branch of Al-Qaeda in Syria, Baghdadi announced “Caliphate” on 29 June 2014 and separated its way from Al-Qaeda.

After ISIL proclaimed itself as “Caliphate” in Syria and Iraq, some people in tribal areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan welcomed it and swore allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghadadi as the Caliph of Muslims, the most important of them being Abdul Rahim Muslimdost and the former spokesperson of the Taliban Shahedullah Shahed.

Although, at that time, ISIL was in its first stages of emergence in Afghanistan, and most of the news about the group’s emergence in the country were assumed as rumors and propaganda, but after some time, these rumors came out true and the Afghan government confirmed the group’s emergence in the country and simultaneously the group announced Hafiz Saeed as the governor of Khurasan province and Abdul Rauof Khadem as the deputy governor of Khurasan. 

After the official announcement of the governor and deputy governor of Khurasan by ISIL, some Afghans and Pakistanis joined the ranks of this group; but there is no exact statistics at hand about the number of Afghans and Pakistanis who have joined ISIL. But it is certain that both Afghans and Pakistanis exists in this group.

 

ISIL activities in Afghanistan

ISIL first started its activities in Afghanistan through propaganda and releasing propaganda videos and pamphlets in several provinces of the country and people affiliated to this groups were seen with black flags in these provinces. Later-on, the group started its military activities from Eastern Afghanistan particularly from Achin district of Nangerhar province.

In their first move, the ISIL fighters killed 12 elders of Shinwary tribe in Nangerhar province by setting them on the explosives and then exploding them and then they released its video. They beheaded and shot many people in Kot, Nazian and Haska Mina districts.

Besides the Eastern areas of the country, fighters affiliated to this group also killed many people in other provinces of the country. One can mention the bloody attack on Jalalabad city, shooting some civilians in Ghor province and decapitating some people in Zabel province for instance. Overall, the presence of this group in 2015 was proved bloody for Afghans. According to the Afghan Ministry of Defense, the group has killed about 600 civilians only in the last six months of 1394 (2015-2016) .

The Afghan government soon started fight against this group and at the end of 1394 (2015-2016), this group was somehow suppressed in Afghanistan. On the other hand, despite the Taliban’s effort to avoid conflict with this group, the Taliban also involved in conflict with this group and after the negative response, by this group, to the Taliban’s letter, the Taliban’s bloody war against ISIL started which played a remarkable role in suppression of this group.

Due to the Afghan government and the Taliban’s fight against ISIL, The Khurasan branch of ISIL weakened at the beginning of 2016, but the group continued its attacks during 2016, the most horrific of which was the attack carried out on the Enlightenment movement in Dehmazang, Kabul on June 23, 2016, killing and injuring about 400 people. The ISIL also claimed responsibility for the attack on Shiite mourners at the Ziarat-e-Karta-e-Shakhi in Kabul, the attack on the car of the employees of the Afghan National Directorate of Security, the attack on Pakistan’s consulate in Jalalabad, and the attack on Madrasa of Baqer al-Ulum in Kabul and some other bloody explosions.

In its recent report on civilian casualties, United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) attributed 899 civilian casualties (209 dead and 690 injured) to ISIL while in 2015, this number was only 82 civilian casualties (39 dead and 43 injured), which signifies ten times increase  in the civilian casualties by this group.

 

Reasons behind the expansion of ISIL in Afghanistan

Although, ISIL could not expand in Afghanistan as fast as it did in Iraq and Syria, but it slowly expanded in this country despite the government and the Taliban’s fight against them. There exist analysis that some circles inside and outside the country are intentionally exaggerating about this group, but, given the ideology of this groups, there is no room for the fighters of this group between the people of Afghanistan.

After the emergence of ISIL in the eastern areas of the country and the assassination of some Taliban fighters by them, there were analysis that the government intentionally does not fight against this group so that the group suppress the Taliban and this is one of the factors behind the expansion of ISIL activities. Later-on, some Parliament members also called ISIL a foreign project. The first deputy of Wolesi Jirga Abdul Zaher Qadir and some other members of Parliament consecutively accused foreign forces and some circles in the Afghan government particularly the National Security Council for supporting ISIL. But still no convincing proof or document is presented and mostly the fingers are raised towards the Wazirestan refugees who had sought refuge in Afghanistan after the Pakistani military’s Zarb-e-Azb operation.

Besides that the followings are the main factors behind expansion of ISIL in Afghanistan:

• Worsened security situation: ISIL emerged in Afghanistan at a time that the country was in worst security situation after 2001. The government was busy fighting the Taliban. Using this opportunity, ISIL established a foothold in Eastern Afghanistan and started its activities from there.
• Internal differences between the Taliban: some Taliban members who were separated from this group swore allegiance to ISIL in Afghanistan and this allegiance helped ISIL in all aspects particularly in recruiting new fighters.
• ISIL’s weakening in Iraq and Syria: at the beginning, the ISIL gained vast areas in Iraq and Syria and wanted to expand its activities in other areas of the world but after the formation of a coalition against the group, ISIL lost control of vast regions and thus, it failed to support its Khurasan branch as well.
• Intelligence circles: even at the beginning, some experts had linked the presence of ISIL in Afghanistan to regional and other intelligence agencies saying that ISIL will not be contained within the borders of Afghanistan and will expand from Afghanistan to Central Asia. The former Afghan President’s chief of staff Abdul Karim Khuram also believes ISIL to be a conspiracy by the US and, in his article, he has predicted that “the war would expand to the neighboring countries of Afghanistan and would reach the borders of China and in order to implement this scheme, Afghanistan must change in to a ‘Greater Waziristan’.”

The end