The Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi triangle and the future
The Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar went on a three-day trip to India last week and participated in the 19th Asian Security Conference held by the Indian Defensive Researches Institute. In his speech to the conference, Atmar said that 20 out of 98 terrorist groups in the world were active in various regions in Afghanistan. Therefore, the world must equip and arm the Afghan forces to eliminate “terrorism”. “We are not confronted with a single terrorist group now, but a major network of them, which are funded by the the black economy (smuggling narcotics/drugs, precious materials, and human and the resources of some regional intelligence agencies).” Said Atmar. He also added, “If we cannot determine whether which country supports terrorism, at least, we can target those who are backed by a state.”
On the other hand, the Indian Minister of Defense Manohar Parrikar, in his speech to the conference, termed terrorism as the greatest challenge for the security and stability of the world. He said, “We live in such an unstable world, where terrorism is expanding and where four groups are responsible for 75% of all the world’s terrorist incidents. These four groups are Boko Haram, the Taliban, ISIL, and Lashkar-e-Taiba.” He also added that “almost 7% of the terrorist attacks in Asia are carried out in India.”
The current relations between Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi, the reasons behind the mistrust between the three countries and the future of the Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi triangle are issues that are analyzed here.
The bloody triangle of Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi
Since ever after the independence of the Indian sub-continent, relations between Kabul, Islamabad, and Delhi were full of tensions, distrust and even sometimes bloody. This situation was apparent during and after the cold war, but in the past one and a half year, relations between these three countries experienced more alternations than ever.
Since the past one year, after the death of the Kashmiri Commander Burhan Wani, tensions between India and Pakistan have exacerbated. In the meanwhile, attacks targeted Indian troops in Indian-administered Kashmir, which Indian troops responded by “surgical attacks” in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir. But, to increase the morale of its forces and to prevent from giving a bad image from its troops, Pakistan rejected such attacks. Pakistan, on the other hand, believes Afghanistan and India to be behind the new wave of insecurities in this country.
In addition, relations between Kabul and Islamabad have also reached to its lowest levels, and Pakistan has closed border crossings between the two countries until an unspecified time. In the meanwhile, since the past several weeks, Pakistan is firing rocket shells on some districts of Kunar and Nangarhar. Furthermore, since the beginning of 2017, 26 Indian soldiers are killed in Indian-administered Kashmir. Hence, once again, Kabul was forced to go towards India in such worst security situations.
Historical distrust and its roots
Suspicions in Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi relations are not a new issue, and it is rooted back in after the independence of the Indian sub-continent. Therefore, we believe that it was after the independence of Pakistan and India that historical distrusts rose in the bilateral relations between the two countries and in the relations of both of them with Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s policy in Afghanistan is rather focused on the strategic depth, which aims at the recognition of the Durand-line on the one hand, and confining Indian influence in Afghanistan and limiting this country’s relations with India on the other hand. To a greater part, this policy is affected by some historical factors, which is the support of Afghanistan from Baloch and Pashtun separatists at the beginning of the cold war. Pakistan has historical issues with India as well. The Kashmir issue was behind the three out of four confrontations/wars between India and Pakistan, and the two countries are still active against each other in Kashmir.
On the other hand, Indian policy is to isolate Pakistan in the world in general and in Afghanistan in particular, so that, on the one hand, it could pave the way for an Afghanistan less influenced by extremist Jihadi groups (because India is afraid/concerned about its impacts on Kashmir) and on the other hand, respond to Pakistan’s policy in Kashmir.
At first, due to border issues with Pakistan, Afghanistan approached to India, using the enmity between India and Pakistan, and supported the Baloch and Pashtun separatists. But the reason behind its recent reproach towards India is its survival and strengthening its security forces. Historical suspicions have also shadowed the Kabul-Islamabad relations. Kabul’s perception of the events is that Pakistan backs the pro-Pakistan Jihadi groups in Afghanistan and also wants to confine Indian influence (to be stated in short sentence, it wants strategic depth in Afghanistan), and if Kabul did not do so, Kabul believes, Pakistan would train Kabul’s armed oppositions and would support them.
The future of Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi’s triangle
There are old suspicions in Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi triangle. Many people want the resolution of these historical issues in order to end these mistrusts. Resolution of the historical issues Pakistan and India are easy because both of them speak from a strong position. During General Parwiz Musharaf’s term, when Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri was Pakistan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Islamabad and Delhi have had improvements in this regard; but the bloody attacks in Bombay in 2008 put an end to these efforts. Talks between India and Pakistan about border issues and Kashmir would be a positive progress in the region, and after Pakistan and India, Afghanistan would be the third country to get the most benefit from it.
But the resolution of the Duran issue, in current situations, would not be in the national interest of Afghanistan. Because, on the one hand, the resolution of the Durand issue does not guarantee that Pakistan will no longer intervene in Afghanistan and on the other hand, at present Afghanistan does not speak from a strong position.
After the termination of mistrust in Kabul-Islamabad-Delhi relations, the second important issue would be to improve state-to-state relations rather than state-to-group relations between these countries. Whenever these improvements become evident, the region would head towards a better future.
The end