Increase in US troops level in Afghanistan and Trump’s unclear AfPak Policy

 

In the first week of 1396 (Afghan Solar Year), the Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs traveled to the US to participate in the Atlantic Council Conference. In his speech in the conference, he called on the US government to send more troops to Afghanistan to fight ISIL and the Taliban.

The demand for more troops on behalf of Afghanistan comes at a time that, before this, the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan General John Nicolson had also said to the US congress that in order to break through the stalemate in Afghanistan, more troops were needed to be deployed in this country. But the Trump administration is yet to respond to Nicolson’s call.

Here you would read about the US military strategy in Afghanistan, the rise and fall in the number of US troops level and the impacts of the US forces on the situation in the country.

 

 

The US’s Military strategy in Afghanistan

More than one and a half decade ago (on 7 Oct 2001), the US forces launched large scale operations to overthrow the Taliban regime and destroy Al-Qaeda bases in Afghanistan, and the war that followed is still going on. During this time, dozen thousands of Afghans have been victims of this war and it still continues to claim Afghan lives.

At first, the US succeeded to defeat the Taliban and replace the regime with the new government, but later-on, when the Taliban restarted their fight in various regions of the country, the US increased its troop level in Afghanistan. The increased number of the US troops and intensified war resulted in increased US troops’ casualties. In 2005, the casualties of the US troops was 129, 193 in 2006, 228 in 2007, 296 in 2008 and 516 in 2009.

In 2008, when Obama seized power in the US, besides announcing the new surge of troops in Afghanistan, he announced the end of 2011 for the withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan. With the beginning of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the security transition to the Afghan security forces began as well, and completed in June 2013.

After the formation of the National Unity Government in Afghanistan in 2014, it signed bilateral security agreements with the US and NATO. Based on these agreements, after 2014, 9800 US troops and 2000 NATO troops remain in Afghanistan and in 2016, this number decrease by 50%. However, until the end of Obama’s term, the abovementioned decision repeatedly changed. The decision would constantly change between decreasing and increasing the troops and finally in July 2016, Obama announced that 8400 would remain in Afghanistan by the end of 2016. [1]

 

The demand to increase US troops

2016 was a tough year for Afghanistan in terms of security and the war between the Afghan government, and the armed oppositions were warmer than the previous years. In this year, the Taliban controlled areas, civilian casualties and the war in urban areas increased. In addition, in this year, some districts and even Kunduz city fell at the hand of the Taliban for the second time.

The issue of deploying more US troops in Afghanistan was first raised by NATO commander in Afghanistan and then some senators in the US Congress, but, in this regard, the US President is yet to determine.

In his remarks to the US Congress, General Nicolson said that the Russian and Iranian support from the Taliban had challenged the peace process in Afghanistan and if one evaluated the Russian and Iranian activities in Afghanistan, one would find out that all of them had aimed at weakening the US and NATO in Afghanistan. [2]

Nicolson also added that, out of Afghanistan, the enemy had both strong support and permanent sanctuaries which challenged the US success in Afghanistan. Nicolson was apparently pointing out Pakistan and indirectly suggested the new US administration, to reconsider their policy towards Pakistan.

However, in response to the request for more troops, Wolesi Jirga (the lower house of the Afghan Parliament) has said that instead of increasing foreign forces, the strengthening and equipping Afghan forces is the best way to fight the anti-government groups in Afghanistan. [3]

 

Is increasing US troops a solution for the Afghan war?

Tens of thousands of US troops were present in Afghanistan in the past years, and they could not end the war in the country, and the war continued to claim Afghan lives, now how can dispatching few thousand US troops can terminate war in Afghanistan?

In 2007, the Commander of foreign forces in Afghanistan General Dan McCain demanded an additional 26000 troops to be deployed in Afghanistan. He said the increasing foreign forces could maintain the US position in Afghanistan and that they (the US) should not lose its position because of ignorance and lack of political will.

In 2009, the then Commander of foreign troops in Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal also warned that the hesitation in deploying more troops in Afghanistan could increase the chances of unlikeliness of the Taliban defeat. After General’s these remarks, Obama increased the US troops in Afghanistan from 30000 to 100000 soldiers which not only decrease war in Afghanistan but also elongated it. 

After the new US President had sworn in the US, once again, the Commander of foreign forces in Afghanistan demanded deployment of more foreign troops in Afghanistan, “the current number of our troops in Afghanistan is only enough to counter the activities of the armed oppositions of the Afghan government, but in order to train the Afghan military forces, more foreign troops are needed,” he said. Apparently, this US General wants to succeed in the Afghan war through increasing troops, but he might not realize that an increased foreign troop’s presence in Afghanistan in the past had resulted in a further intensification of war.

Instead of increasing troops in Afghanistan, the new US administration must primarily ponder about the challenges that have led to the US failure and amplification of war in Afghanistan. The US president must also support the Afghan Peace Process and must seek to end the war, that they had started in Afghanistan, through any way possible because peace in Afghanistan is not only in the best interests of Afghanistan but also that of the US’s and the world’s.

The end

 

 

[1] The research and analytic report of CSRS, “Afghanistan in the past one and a half decade” page: 306- 307.

[2] Deutsche welle; http://www.dw.com/fa-ir/%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%DA%98%D9%86%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%B1%D8%A8-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%87-%D9%88-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86/a-37495548

[3] Radio Azadi، https://da.azadiradio.com/a/28386368.html