The NUG and the alarms of political instability
Issuing a decree, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani dismissed his Special Representative for Reforms and Good Governance Ahmad Zia Massoud on 17th April 2017. After the issuance of the President’s decree Dawa Khan Mina Pal, the Deputy Spokesperson of President Ghani, said that the reason behind discharging Massoud was his weak performance. One day after being sacked from his job, Massoud said during a press conference that by undertaking this move, President Ghani was paving the way for political instability and civil war.
President Ghani is dismissing a senior government authority at a time that in its recent report, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has said that still the Afghan government was faced with internal political differences, incoordination, and resumption of the activities of its armed oppositions.
The internal disputes of National Unity Government (NUG), some concerns of ICG about the situation in Afghanistan, and the consequences of firing Massoud are issues that are analyzed here.
The challenges ahead
The ICG on the one hand has expressed satisfaction from the developments and economic stability in Afghanistan during the NUG’s tenure saying that the financial reforms and restricted control over the collection of taxes has resulted in increasing of the government’s Revenue but on the other hand it has added that after two and a half years since its formation the future of the NUG and in the country’s political stability continues to be fragile.
The ICG report writes that NUG confronts internal disputes and lack of coordination and the reason behind all these challenges are the differences between the President and Chief Executive. The institution further states that if the existing tensions were not declined there exists the risks of civil war and increased insecurity in Afghanistan.
ICG, which is established in 1995 to conduct on the ground researches about great international conflicts, had warned in a statement that with the establishment of the NUG, instability and intra-groups tensions are probable.
The NUG’s internal differences
The over contested 2014 Presidential Election resulted in the formation of a government which was victim of many internal disputes. Even from the beginning, the 50-50 power sharing between the two electoral teams confronted the country with many challenges, which continued up until now.
Whether how the NUG political agreement be implemented was the main reason behind internal disputes. The major challenge that the NUG has faced since ever the beginning is the legitimacy crisis. The very foundation of the NUG was put in violation of the constitution and the Chief Executive Post was created while it was not anticipated in the constitution. Based on the political agreement the government must have called for Loya Jirga two years after its formation and decide about the Chief Executive Post, but it did not occur and after John Kerry’s trip to Kabul, this post was, somehow, extended until fifth year of the NUG.
During two and half year of its tenure, the NUG faced with the deepened internal differences, which resulted in contradictory stances of its leaders in some cases. For instance, about the Afghan refugees in Europe, the Yemen and Saudi Arabia war in foreign policy and fight against corruption. These differences, in some occasions, was followed with the fierce criticism of the Chief Executive from the President.
The disagreement between the President and the Vice President was the second wave of internal disputes. One and a half year after the formation of the NUG, criticizing President Ghani, the First Vice President General Abdul Rashid Dustum said that he had not has sufficient share in the government. He even said that until then, he was not even given the powers that a First Vice President had. He also accused the President for nepotism. The differences between them reached to its new heights after Ishchi’s case.
Tensions between Dr. Abdullah and the Governor of Balkh Province Ata Mohammad Noor was another part of the internal disputes in the NUG. After starting negotiation with Presidential Palace over Jamiat-e-Islami’s share in the government, Atta said that he no longer trusts the political decisions made by Abdullah and, therefore, has entered the negotiations with Presidential Palace.
The existence of all these internal dispute in the government has influenced the situation in the country and has impacted economy, foreign policy, fight against corruption, etc.
The dismissal of Ahmad Zia Massoud
With the dismissal of Ahmad Zia Massoud a new wave of tensions between the leaders of the NUG has begun.
Ahmad Zia Massaud is the current deputy head of Jamiat-e-Islami Party and he was the First Vice President in the first term of Karzai’s government between 2004 and 2009. In the first round of 2014 President Elections, he was the First Vice President in Zalmai Rasul’s electoral package. However, in the second round of elections, unlike the decisions of Jamiat-e-Islami, he supported Ghani and after the formation of the NUG, issuing a decree, Ghani appointed him as his Special Representative for Reforms and Good Governance. Even from the beginning, this post was influenced by the 50-50 share of power, which made Massoud discontent.
After about two and a half years, based on the article-64 of the Afghan constitution which enables the President to appoint or fire high-ranking government officials, the Afghan President discharged Massoud from his job. According to the deputy spokesperson of Ghani the reason behind sacking him was his weak performance.
However, in response to this move, Ahmad Zia Massoud said that the NUG was formed on the bases of an agreement between the parties and there exists a written commitment that no group can remove another group from the political structure. Addressing the President, he said, “You do not have the power to dismiss me. I want you to withdraw your decree and tell the Afghans that this decree was paving the way for instability in the country.”
The reasons and consequences of Massoud’s dismissal
However, the main reason for sacking Massoud is not clear and apparently poor performance is said to be the reason, but since on the one hand the duties of this post was not clear and on the other hand, Massoud was busy with his political activities, one cannot accept it as the main reason for his dismissal.
Massoud was in charge of an institution that its authorities were defined to be as same as a Vice President’s. Although he was a government official and benefited from government privileges, he constantly kept criticizing the government and specially the President. In addition, for several times, Massoud traveled to the provinces and tried to besiege the “Mujahidin”. In his remarks, Massoud would emphasize that the Mujahidin was a powerful force to seize political power in Afghanistan. It seems that this issue has led the President to decide to remove him.
Massoud’s dismissal will not be as serious as he says ‘the beginning of the instability and civil war in the country’. In the political scene of the country, Massoud is not in a position that could get people to start a civil war or cause instability in the country because of the bitter experience that people have from the past, they will not support Massaud to that scale. On the other hand, Jamiat-e-Islami Party is also confronted with internal disputes. However, the public may process this the removal of Massaud as a result of ethnical incentives.
In addition, in response to this move Atta Mohammad Noor criticized Dr. Abdullah and said that since Abdullah has entered the government from Jamiat’s address, therefore, he must give clarification in this regard. In the meanwhile, the spokesperson of Chief Executive has said that since on behalf of Jamiat-e-Islami Atta was negotiating with Presidential Palace, therefore, the responsibility for clarification lied with him. Hence, internal differences between the members of Jamiat-e-Islami have also increased.
Overall, although this move has triggered a new wave of internal disputes, there exists analysis suggesting that, in order to attract the support of some of Jamiat’s members Dr. Abdullah may take this case seriously, however it seems that the President will not withdraw his decision and this case will not be as enlarged as to challenge the instability in the country.
The end