The new US administration and the future of Kabul-Washington relations
The US Secretary of Defense General Jim Mattis in an unexpected trip visited Kabul on 24 April 2017. He said that in this voyage he aimed to assess the security situation in Afghanistan. In a joint press conference with the top NATO commander in Afghanistan General John Nicolson, Mattis said that 2017 would be a challenging year for the Afghan forces but pledged that the US would stand on their side.
Since Trump came to power in the US, Mattis is the second senior US official to visit Afghanistan. Before this, the US National Security Advisor had visited Afghanistan and in his meetings with the Afghan officials had stressed on the continuation of the US cooperation and support for Afghanistan.
The relations between the National Unity Government (NUG) of Afghanistan and the Trump administration, the objective of Mattis’s visit to Kabul and the Future of Kabul-Washington ties are issues that are analyzed here.
The NUG’s relations with the Trump administration
After the 2004 US Presidential elections, it was for the first time that the two leading candidates did not clear their stance regarding Afghanistan and even during their campaigns they did not bring up the issue of Afghanistan in their discussions. Therefore, both the Afghan government and countries in the region were concerned whether how the US is planning to deal with Afghanistan.
After Trump’s victory in the elections, the Afghan leaders congratulated him and demanded the expansion of bilateral relations between the two countries. Later, in a phone conversation, besides inviting Ghani to visit the US, Donald Trump stressed that the US would continue to support Afghanistan. Ghani in his turn demanded the US support from Afghanistan in various fields.
In addition, the participation of the Afghan Minister of Foreign Affairs in the ministerial meeting of the Global Coalition to defeat ISIS, hosted by the US in Washington, was also a significant step in relations between Kabul and the Trump administration. [1] In this meeting, Afghanistan called on the US to send more troops in Afghanistan to combat ISIS in this country.
After the installation of the new government in the US, The US National Security Advisor General McMaster was the first high-ranking US official who visited Afghanistan. In his visit to Kabul, McMaster met the Afghan President, Chief Executive and the Afghan National Security Advisor and discussed the expansion of bilateral relations, fight against the armed groups, and regional issues. Besides assuring the continuation of the US support from Afghanistan, McMaster stressed that bringing reforms in the Afghan administrations were important and that the Afghan government had to appoint committed individuals in the administrations. [2]
Although it became three months since the beginning of Trump’s Presidency, which is a very short time to evaluate bilateral relations, it seems that relations between Kabul and Washington has become more active in the second half of this period compared to its first half, especially after the US Secretary of Defense paid a visit to Kabul. However, the Trump Administration has newly begun its work and has not yet revised the US policy towards Afghanistan.
The US Secretary of Defense visits Kabul
The US Secretary of Defense pays a voyage to Afghanistan while in the first weeks of 2016 (solar year) Afghanistan witnessed some significant events. First, the utilization of the “mother of all bombs” in the Achin District of Nangarhar Province which was apparently aimed to destroy ISIL hideouts[3]. Second, the deadly attack on the 209 Shaheen Corps in Dehdadi District of Balkh Province, which left 140 Afghan soldiers dead and dozens wounded, and the Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. The US Secretary of Defense’s visit to Kabul coincided with the resignation of the Afghan Minister of Defense as well.
In his meeting with the Afghan President, Jim Mattis discussed the security issues in Afghanistan and the region, fight against the armed groups, and cooperation between the two countries in various fields. Mattis said that “Our mission in Afghanistan is not terminated and we will remain alongside the Afghan people and government.” He also added that “Our Presence in Afghanistan is for good and we have to coordinate our diplomacy and military issues with each other.” In addition, he demanded from the Afghan government to undertake measure in areas of reforms, good governance and struggle against corruption. The Afghan President also emphasized that he is committed to reforms and the fight against corruption. He demanded the expansion and improvement of relations between the two countries. It is said that in this meeting the two sides also discussed the issue of increasing US troops in Afghanistan.
In a joint conference with the Commander of “Resolute Support”, Mattis said that both the US and the world would continue to support Afghanistan in its fight against armed groups, but added that 2017 would be a challenging year for the Afghan forces. He also stated that the US was concerned about Russia’s support of the Taliban and added that they would deal with Russia through political and diplomatic channels, but if Russians acted in violation of international law, the US would confront them.
The US Secretary of Defense visits Kabul while the US, on the one hand, has almost finished approving a policy for Afghanistan and, on the other hand, is concerned about Russia and Iran’s role in Afghanistan, particularly their relations with the Taliban. Therefore the US is trying to improve its ties with Kabul and thus wants to control Russia and Iran’s activities in Afghanistan.
The future of Kabul-Washington relations
Although between 2001 and 2008 the Afghan government had better relations with the US republicans, but this time the republicans have seized power in a different situation and with a different person as President. On the one hand, the US’s political climate and US’s relations with the international community have entered a new phase, and, on the other hand, Trump’s contradictory remarks regarding various issues, and his unpredictability and unclear policy especially regarding Afghanistan are issues that would affect the future relations between the US and Afghanistan.
The Afghan government relies on the US support and, therefore, after the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG) in Afghanistan, this government immediately signed the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the US, and this issue is assumed one of the reasons why the Afghan peace process has reached a deadlock. On the one hand, the Taliban are opposed to the foreign military bases in Afghanistan and on the other hand countries in the region (for instance Russia and Iran) are against the existence of the US bases in the country. However, the Afghan government, to some extent, is concerned about the Trump administration’s policy towards Afghanistan because, given Trump’s knowledge and experience regarding Afghanistan and its related issues, his policy towards Afghanistan is likely to change at any time.
While the NUG sees the US support and the BSA vital for its survival, because no other country would be willing to assist billions of dollars to the Afghan government in areas of security, economy and other aspects, in order to end war and peace with the Taliban, the Afghan government have to gamble on these relations and supports, something that currently does not seems possible for the Afghan government. Therefore, the NUG, both for its survival and continuation of war with its armed opposition, may in any ways possible try to attract the US support and maintain warm relations with this country.
On the other hand, the US National Security Advisor, whose trip to Kabul was part of the revision of the US strategy regarding Afghanistan, after his return to Washington has said that given the decreased military engagement of the US in Afghanistan, the Taliban had doubled their activities. The Commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan has also called on the new US administration to deploy more US troops to Afghanistan.
Although, given his contradictory remarks regarding Afghanistan in the past one and half decade and his lack of political experience, Trump’s policy towards Afghanistan cannot be predicted, the utilization of “mother of all bombs” in Afghan soil and the unclear policy of the new US administration regarding the Afghan peace process on one hand and the remarks made by the US officials regarding Russia’s relations with the Taliban and increasing the number of US troops in Afghanistan on the other hand implies that the US would rather focus on strengthening its military presence and would thus intensify war in Afghanistan. Therefore, the fate of peace and war in Afghanistan could become further complicated.
The end
[1] The Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs: http://mfa.gov.af/fa/news/foriegn-minister-participate-in-defeat-isis-world-coalition-ministerial-meeting
[2] The Afghan Presidential Palace: http://president.gov.af/fa/66600
[3] However the “mother of all bombs” is said to have been used to destroy tunnels and caves that ISIL used but there exists other opinions behind its aims which are brought in 203 issue of the Weekly Analysis of CSRS: https://csrskabul.com/pa/?p=3514