Tensions between Kabul and Islamabad and efforts to improve the bilateral relations
While tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have escalated, the Director General of Pakistan’s Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) General Naveed Mukhtar traveled to Kabul last week in a bid to talk with Afghan officials and improve relations between the two countries. Days before Mukhtar’s visit to Kabul, two high-ranking Pakistani delegation had also arrived Afghanistan to ease tensions between Kabul and Islamabad and met the Afghan President and other senior officials.
The Pakistani military and civilian authorities pay visits to Afghanistan while recently relations between Kabul and Islamabad is intensified more than ever and distrust between the two nations has reached to new heights.
Kabul-Islamabad relations during the National Unity Government (NUG) particularly in the past several months of 2017, the impacts of the recent visits of Pakistani delegation on bilateral relations and the future of Kabul-Islamabad ties are the issues that are analyzed here.
From peace with Pakistan to the escalation of tensions
During more than two years of the NUG’s tenure relations between Kabul and Islamabad have passed through two phases (very close ties and then severe tensions and even clashes between the two countries). First, regarding political ties with Pakistan, President Ghani said that the two countries were engaged in an undeclared war against each other and first of all peace must be made with Pakistan. Therefore, the NUG reached out to Pakistan and, giving some privileges to this country, relations between the two nations became unprecedentedly warm.
Using its close relations with Pakistan and other political means, the NUG made efforts to push Pakistan to sincerely cooperate in the peace process particularly in regards to bringing the Taliban to the negotiation table. But after few months, with the intensification of insecurity in the country especially after the deadly suicide attacks in Kabul and the enclosure of the former Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar’s death followed by the failure of the Murree negotiation with the Taliban, Kabul’s policy and relations with Islamabad experienced a U-turn.
Tensions between the two countries even led to military confrontations between the two sides at the Turkham border which had some casualties as well. In international conferences, the Afghan government also made efforts to marginalize Pakistan. For instance, the Afghan President in the sixth meeting of the Heart of Asia Conference rejected $500m Pakistan’s aid and said that Pakistani government should spend the money to fight terrorism in its own country. In addition, in 2016, due to harassment by the Pakistani police, more than 500 thousand Afghan refugees returned from Pakistan and trade between the two countries declined to $1bn a year as well.
Kabul-Islamabad ties in 2017
With the beginning of 2017 and following the deadly assaults in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Pakistan’s rocket attacks on Afghan soil, tensions in Pak-Afghan relations further increased. After the attack on Lal Shahbaz Qalandar shrine in the Sindh province of Pakistan, which left 70 dead and 250 injured, Pakistan closed its borders with Afghanistan and claimed that the attack was orchestrated by the armed groups inside Afghanistan.
Furthermore, Pakistan summoned the Afghan diplomats and submitted a list of 76 peoples who Pakistan claimed to be in Afghanistan and were acting against Pakistan. Pakistan wanted the Afghan government to arrest and hand over these peoples to Islamabad. The Afghan government, on the other side, provided Pakistan with a list containing the names of the people and centers who were present in Pakistan and acted against the Afghan government.
In the meanwhile, efforts were made to ease tensions between the two countries, and with the mediation of the United Kingdom, the Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar met his Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz in a trilateral meeting in London on 15 March 2017, but this meeting did not have concrete achievements.
On the other hand, the Dawn, a Pakistani Newspaper, has quoted the diplomatic sources of the US that the Americans have also reiterated on the talks between Afghan and Pakistani officials so that the two countries could build a mechanism to end oppositions with each other.
Pakistan, in its first move to ease tensions, opened the one-month closed border with Kabul and then sent three high-powered Pakistani delegations to Afghanistan to improve relations between the two countries.
The consecutive visits of Pakistani delegations to Kabul
A delegation of Pakistani army headed by Chief of General Staff Lieutenant General Bilal Akbar arrived Kabul on 27 April 2017. The delegation of Pakistani army met the acting Afghan Minister of Defense General Tariq Bahrami and the Afghan Chief of Army Staff General Sharif Yaftali. In these meetings, the two sides described terrorism as shared enemy of both Afghanistan and Pakistan and reiterated that with cooperation between the two countries security and stability would be maintained in both countries. The Pakistani delegation also promised that no group would be allowed to use Pakistani soil against Afghanistan.
Two days after the Pakistani military delegation (on 29 April), a 15-member Pakistani Parliamentary delegation headed by Ayaz Sadiq arrived in Kabul. Heads of some of the Pakistani parties were also present in the combination of this delegation. The delegation met the Afghan President, Chief Executive, the former President Hamid Karzai and the speakers of the Afghan Parliament. The aim of this delegation’s travel is also said to be strengthening relations between the two countries. In the meetings between the Pakistani delegation and Afghan officials, Kabul has demanded from Pakistan to fulfill the commitments that this country has made regarding the cooperation in the maintenance of peace and stability in Afghanistan. The Pakistani Parliamentary delegation assured that they would pressurize their respective government to deliver these commitments. In the meanwhile, the Pakistani delegation invited the former Afghan President and the Afghan Chief Executive to visit Pakistan which was accepted by both the former President Hamid Karzai and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.
General Naveed Mukhtar who is appointed as the head of ISI just five months earlier also visited Kabul on 2 May 2017, and met the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and other Afghan officials and discussed issues relevant to both countries. Although details about Ghani’s meeting with Pakistan’s chief of intelligence services are not revealed, quoting some credential government officials, some media outlets have said that Ghani has demanded from General Naveed Mukhtar to take serious actions regarding the documents and proofs that was earlier submitted to Pakistan. It is said that, with a serious tone, Ghani has said to Mukhtar that relations between the two countries will not improve unless solid steps are taken by Pakistani side to meet Afghan demands.
In addition, it is said that Pakistan’s spymaster has invited Ghani to visit Pakistan but Ghani has rejected his invitation saying that he “will not travel to Pakistan as long as the war in Afghanistan is not reduced and Kabul is not ensured about Pakistan’s goodwill”.
The future of Kabul-Islamabad relations
The recent visits of three Pakistani delegations to Kabul show that Islamabad is seeking to strengthen relations with Kabul and is concerned about the escalation of tensions with its neighbor. Due to pressures and harsh stance of the Afghan government and international community regarding Pakistan’s cooperation in the Afghan peace process, this country is currently marginalized.
On the other hand, it seems that the new US administration is strengthening its relations with Afghanistan and recently two high-ranking US officials traveled to Kabul. Pakistan is concerned about its relations with the US especially after Donald Trump came to power in the US because Trump has serious opinions regarding Pakistan as a few years earlier Trump had said that “our presence in Afghanistan is also significant to control Pakistan.”
Now it seems that the Afghan government will not step back from its preconditions regarding its relations with Pakistan and given the Afghan government’s stance, relations between the two countries are linked to Pakistan’s sincere cooperation in the peace process. The Afghan government has mentioned the fulfillment of promises made by Pakistan as one of the essential preconditions for improving relations with Islamabad.
The end.