The Chinese mediation in tensed Afghan-Pak ties
Since a month, at the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Conference, President Ghani in his meeting with the Chinese President showed eagerness to organize a trilateral meeting between Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China. Later, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs traveled to Kabul on 24 June 2017 to discuss China’s involvement in improving relations between Kabul and Islamabad. In his meeting with the Afghan President, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs said that China was ready to help create a practical mechanism to improve relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In addition to China, the United State seeks to improve these relations as well. Last week, a delegation of the US senators headed by the head of US Senate’s committee of military services John McCain came to Kabul just after his visit to Pakistan. This delegation has discussed the issue of Afghanistan with Pakistani officials and has clearly communicated to Pakistani officials that the presence of Haqqani Network and other “terrorist” groups in its soil was intolerable and that Pakistan must change its stance in this regard.
In their meeting with the Afghan President, the delegation of US Senate members suggested a joint operation, under a third country’s observation, against armed groups across the Durand line, which was accepted by the Afghan government.
Here you would read about the tenuous relations between Kabul and Islamabad, China’s willingness to mediate between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and whether China will be successful in it or not?
The tensed Kabul-Islamabad ties
In the past one and have decade, the Kabul-Islamabad relations experienced the most ups and downs during the NUG. After the formation of the NUG, relations between the two countries improved unprecedentedly. However, after a while, tensions between the two nations escalated to the levels that led to clashes between the forces of the two countries in the broader border regions.
After the attack on Lal Shahbaz Qalandar, a Sufi shrine in Sindh province, Pakistan claimed that the assault was orchestrated in Afghanistan and, hence, closed its border checkpoints with this country. Although after the reopening of the borders, through the consecutive travels of Pakistani delegations including Pakistani spy chief’s visit to Kabul, efforts were made to improve relations between the two countries, these efforts had failed to produce any desiring outcomes yet and, once again, the Afghan government has accused the Pakistani intelligence of being involved in deadly attacks, particularly the attack in the diplomatic area of Kabul.
Still, days after the incident mentioned above, the Afghan President said in the Kabul Process Conference, where Pakistan’s representative was also present, that the Afghan government is seeking to find an effective way to negotiate with Pakistan. He called on Pakistan to clearly state their demands from Afghanistan. In the ceremony to introduce the new head of the High Peace Council, the Afghan President said, “Afghanistan does not want peace from Pakistan but it wants peace with Pakistan.” [1] Nonetheless, in the absence of the powerful countries’ mediation, the improvement of relations between the two nations seems unlikely.
China’s inclination towards mediation
China is a country that is interested in mediating in the Afghan peace process. The Afghan government believes that sincere cooperation of Pakistan in the peace process can bring peace in Afghanistan and since China has strong relations with both Kabul and Islamabad and is a powerful country in the region, this country (China) is trying to mediate in improving ties between the two countries. In his meeting with the Afghan President, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs said that a stable Afghanistan was necessary for the stability in the region and that in his visit to Pakistan he would demand the Pakistani officials to show their good will in improving their political relations with Afghanistan. [2]
The question is why China is interested in mediating between Afghanistan and Pakistan? There are several reasons for China to be inclined towards mediation:
First; China is concerned about its internal security, especially the security of its Xinjiang province. Given the importance of the geographical situation of Afghanistan and being its neighbor, China realizes that stability in Afghanistan is essential for the stability of the whole region and especially China. If Afghanistan is insecure and unstable, this insecurity and instability can extend to China as well.
Second; China realizes that in the absence of security in the region, the implementation of its major economic projects (China and Pakistan’s Economic Corridor and Silk Road) will be impossible. Therefore, China is making efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region.
Third; China has also realized that its interests in the region will still be threatened if relations between Kabul and Islamabad were not improved. If relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan improve, China’s regional interests will also be guaranteed.
Can China mediate?
China’s preparedness in mediation between Kabul and Islamabad has created hopes that tensions between the two countries will decrease. However, since China’s presence in the quadrilateral meetings (between Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, and the US), these meetings did not have desiring outcomes, now the question is to what extent China’s mediation will improve the long-term relations between the two countries?
Without any doubt, China is Pakistan’s closest strategic economic and political partner in the region. In 2011, Massod Khan, the then Pakistan’s Ambassador to China had described the China-Pakistan relations to be sweeter than honey, stronger than iron, and deeper than the deepest oceans. [3] China can utilize its close ties with Pakistan.
Besides that, during the past one and a half decade, China’s role in the region has considerably increased, and its relations with Pakistan have also expanded. Currently, Chinese companies are implementing various projects in different part of Pakistan, and China has invested about $57m in Pakistan. In the meanwhile, this country is also confronted security threats as well. For instance, in May 2017, the two Chinese Language teachers were abducted and then killed in Quetta city of Pakistan. Therefore, China can pressurize Pakistan to preserve the mutual economic interests.
On the other hand, Pakistan is in favor of expanding China’s relation and engagement in Afghanistan because, from Pakistani perspective, China can limit Indian influence in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is also looking forward to the more proactive role of China in this country because the economic growth and role of China in the region are increasing and this country can contribute to Afghanistan in areas of economy, politics and even security.
The Chinese mediation can be efficient to the improvement of relations between the two countries in the short run. However, for warm relations between these two countries, in the long-term, there is a need for broader regional and global pressures to persuade Pakistan to undertake real cooperation in the Afghan issue.
In the past, these relations were repaired several times as a result of such mediations but since these relations are linked with the security in the region, with the intensification of security situations, these relations are deteriorated once again. Currently, there are hopes that given the vast Chinese influence in Pakistan, China will get Pakistan to treat the Afghan issue honestly and these relations will fundamentally improve.
Afghanistan-China-Pakistan cooperation areas
Currently, taking the situation of the region into consideration, the interests of Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan are linked to various aspects, and China is moving towards a more active engagement in Afghanistan and Pakistan which requires good relations between Kabul and Islamabad as well.
Afghanistan and Pakistan are making efforts to attract Chinese investments in various projects including TAPI, CASA-1000, the railway corridor between the five countries, etc. China also realizes that, given its strategic location, Afghanistan can be influential in the successes of its two projects; “One Belt, One Road” and “China-Pakistan Economic Corridor”.
Afghanistan, which is a natural transit route, can align most of its infrastructural projects with the “One Belt, One Road” project. In the meanwhile, Kabul needs comprehensive relations and engagement with China because China has the means to invest in most of the economic, transit, and trade projects as well as Afghanistan’s untapped resources. However, an essential point about the regional interest of these countries and success in these aspects is stability and security in the region which requires joint efforts and cooperation of these countries.
The end
[1] Radio Azadi, «افغانستان اکنون پاکستان را همکار صلح نه بلکه طرف صلح میخواند» [Afghanistan now considers Pakistan as a party of peace rather than a cooperator], 11 Saratan 1396:
https://da.azadiradio.com/a/28590782.html
[2] Presidential Palace, «رئیس جمهور غنی با وزیر امور خارجه چین دیدار کرد»[President Ghani met the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs], 3 Saratan 1396 solar year:
http://president.gov.af/fa/news-china-mofa
[3] Etilaat-e-Roz, «آیا چین میتواند به وساطت میان افغانستان و پاکستان کمک نماید؟» [Can China help in mediation between Afghanistan and Pakistan?], 10 Saratan 1396 solar year, read more here: