Tough Demands from a Week Position
Recently, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has sent a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, which is been been leaked to media outlets.
Ghani’s Letter to Sharif: Reality or Rumor?
In spite of wide coverage in the media and even talks on the content of the letter is going on, but the letter is still questionable. Has the letter really been sent to Nawaz Sharif? If so, then why it is being simultaneous with the MoU of NDS (National Directorate of Security) of Afghanistan with the ISI of Pakistan? And why presidential palace and ministry of foreign affairs of Afghanistan do not clarify the complexity?
On the other hand, Pakistani officials have not acknowledged the letter yet. The Pakistani Embassy in Kabul has also showed ignorance regarding this letter.
The leakiness of the letter from the presidential palace may be for two reasons:
- To ease the harsh public pressure regarding the MoU signed with ISI;
- And a green light to Pakistan’s arch rival to show Kabul’s non-alignment.
But both the Afghan and Pakistani governments have not expressed any view on the letter publically. The public opinion in Afghanistan believes that the letter has been sent. The Afghan media outlet not only believing in sending of the letter but also, reportedly, the content of the letter has also been leaked. Therefore, a conclusive discussion on the letter’s content would not be useless.
The Content of the Letter
- An official declaration by the political leadership of Pakistan condemning the launching of the Taliban offensive;
- Urgently Abandoning all Taliban sanctuaries inside Pakistan;
- A directive to extend the counter-terror campaign to the Haqqani network and verification that those responsible for the recent terror campaign in Afghanistan are arrested;
- Place the leaders of the Quetta Shura and the Peshawar Shura under house-arrest and to initiate legal proceedings against them for threatening a friendly state;
- A directive to all medical facilities to hand over those with war wounds to the custody of security officials for investigation and arrest;
- Agreeing on an exchange of prisoners such as Mulla Biradar for (members of) Tehrik-i-Taliban-i-Pakistan;
- Another directive for the factories producing fertilizer and switches for improvised explosive devices (IEDs) be allowed to sell only to authorized firms;
- Agreement to carry out a series of simultaneous operations to deny passage to TTP (Tehrik Taliban Pakistan) and TTA (Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan), such as Baramcha.
From MoU to the Letter
Recently, the issue of MoU between Afghan and Pakistani intelligence agencies caused wide range of harsh discourses inside Afghanistan. Rumors have been heard that differences emerged over MoU between National Security Advisor, Hanif Atmar and Head of NDS Rahmatullah Nabil. Atmar has asked Nabil to sign the MoU with the ISI, but he has refused harshly. After the controversy, the MoU was signed by the Deputy Head of NDS.
Whether the reports are right or wrong, but the MoU has undoubtedly proved one thing and that is increased disagreement inside already fragile National Unity government. The adversaries are of the opinion that the commitment of Pakistan and its cooperation in peace process has yet to be proved, giving the privileges to Pakistan is not logical.
Therefore, it seems that President Ghani has been under pressure, until Pakistan is not taking any solid steps in pushing peace process in Afghanistan and exerting the required pressure on Taliban, the MoU shall not be signed.
The President has given one month deadline to take the required measures regarding the eight demands of Afghanistan. But, reportedly, the letter was sent around three weeks before, and there is no sign of any change in the policy of Pakistan. Ghani has asked Pakistan in the letter to handover those responsible for recent attacks in Afghanistan, but the war is going on with full intensity in different parts of the country.
Tough Demands
One of the reasons behind the Talibans’ new intense operations in Afghanistan is that the group tries to have more vast areas in its control to reside in mountainous areas of the country instead of Pakistan. Afghanistan is even a perfect safe-haven for Pakistani Taliban who are under pressure in their country.
President Ghani has asked Pakistan to dismantle the sanctuaries of Taliban inside Pakistan, while the Pakistani officials believes that the safe-haven have been transformed to Afghanistan. In the last visit of Nawaz Sharif and Pakistani security and military personals the Pakistani side claimed that the Indian intelligence “RAW” supports and finances the sanctuaries of the militants.
Arresting Quetta and Peshawar council’s members is also an ambiguous demand, because no one understands the so called “Quetta Shura” which is the central committee of Taliban where it locates.
Currently, there is neither any “Quetta Shura” and nor any ‘Peshawar Shura’. The operations in northern Waziristan made the Taliban group, which is known as “Haqqani Network”, to leave the area. Even the Manba-ul-Jihad madrasa of Jalaluddin Haqqani has been evacuated.
One can understand from the contents of the letter that the Afghan government has strong belief that the key Taliban leaders reside inside the Pakistani cities along with their families. That’s why Ghani asks Pakistani government to- at least-impose house-arrest on the Taliban leaders.
Pakistan’s Inability
Since the improvement in relations and security cooperation between the National Unity Government and Islamabad has been increased, Pakistan has tried to reestablish contacts with well-known Taliban leaders and encourage or even force them to talk to Kabul, but it has not succeeded yet.
The recent talks held in Urumqi, China, was between the Afghan government delegation and those Taliban who has no effective role in peace process. It means that Pakistan does have any access to the key Taliban leaders to encourage them for talks with Kabul. On other hand, Taliban refused any links with Urumqi meeting.
Dr. Mohammad Naeem Wardag, the spokesman of Taliban political office in Qatar insisted in his recent interview that the group is not under leverage of “any country” and their struggle goes on independently. The efforts aiming to divide the group are useless.
Conclusion
The demands of President Ghani in his letter to Nawaz Sharif reflects trust deficit as a great barrier which still over shadow the relations of the two countries. The letter clearly exposes that the Afghan Government still believes that centers of support, finance and equipment of Afghan Taliban are inside Pakistani soil and the Afghan war is being led by ISI.
When trust deficit still exists in the relations of the two countries, then why the Afghan Government agrees on the MoU with all the privileges to ISI?
The reason is BSA with the US which made Kabul to agree with all the demands of Pakistan. The preamble of BSA says:
Reaffirming the continued support of the parties for regional cooperation and coordination mechanisms, with goal of increasing security and stability by reducing tensions, uncertainty, and misunderstanding.
Therefore, Afghanistan is obliged to settle the three problems with Pakistan for security and stability:
- Reducing tensions means the clashes or military threats of the countries, the shelling of rocket from Pakistani territory;
- Reducing all the ambiguities, making clear all the complex issues which cause differences between the two countries. “Durrand Issue”;
- Removing the misunderstandings that the two countries blame each other for assisting the enemies of each other. The removal of these misunderstandings are not possible without close intelligence cooperation.
President Ghani has posed tough demands from a week position, because he does not own any tool of pressure on Pakistan to pursue his goals. He is obliged to settle his problem with Pakistan which he committed to in BSA with US. The continuation of his government is too connected with the great gamble.