The strategy of war and the fate of the security situation
Based on the annual report of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), 2017 was another bloody year for Afghans and more than 10000 civilian casualties were recorded in this year. The beginning of 2018 was even bloodier than that of 2017. This increase in civilian casualties was due to the heavy attacks and explosions of the oppositions of the government as well as the airstrikes of the US and NATO forces.
UNAMA’s report shows increase in civilian casualties at a time that, due to the war strategy of the US, the foreign soldiers in Afghanistan are returning to the battlefield and have increased their air attacks. Currently, on the one hand, the number of foreign forces in Afghanistan is increasing and on the other hand, peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan Government does not seem to be likely.
Why is the current war escalating day after day? Will the US and Afghan government’s current strategy of war will bring security and stability in the country?
Civilian casualties
Based on the statistics of UNAMA, since 2007, when UNAMA started documenting civilian casualties, until the end of 2017 an overall number of 84246 civilians were either injured or killed in the war between the government and its armed oppositions.
According to the annual report of UNAMA and the UN Human Rights Office, released a few days ago, the civilian casualty rate is still very high. The report writes that between 1 January 2017 and end of December 2017, 3438 civilians are killed and 7015 other are injured. Overall, 10453 civilians casualties have been recorded in this year. [1] However, this is not the exact statistics of civilian casualties, but its shows that Afghans have passed another bloody year.
Overall, compared to 2015 and 2016, civilian casualties in 2017 have decreased; however, the casualties of women and children in this year are high. In 2017, 359 women were killed and 865 other were injured, which indicates a 5% increase compared to 2016. Moreover, 861 children were killed in this year and 2318 children were wounded, which shows a 10% increase compared to 2016. On the other hand, it seems the increase in the airstrikes of the Afghan and foreign forces and the increase in civilian casualties due to these attacks has undermined the fact that in 2017, civilian casualties has decreased in comparison to 2016.
Based on the statistics of UNAMA, it is the fourth consecutive year that the civilian casualties exceed 10 thousand people. Besides that, the Afghans are living in more and more fear and insecurity. UNAMA accepts that their statistics do not fully represent the disasters that the war brings upon Afghans.
The Responsibility of civilian casualties
The war strategies of the engaged parties in the Afghan war and unrealistic approach toward the peace process are the main reasons behind the current war and its prolongation in the country. In this regard all parties engaged in this war have some part, particularly considering the fact that since the formation of the NUG the civilian casualties has increased more than ever.
UNAMA also introduces the responsible parties for civilian casualties and it attributes most of the responsibility for civilian casualties to the Taliban. However, on the one hand, UNAMA’s report does not include the civilian casualties for which they do not have enough evidence to put them in the category of civilian casualties neither do they include the casualties of the incidents to which they do not have access. In the meanwhile the civilian casualties caused by the airstrikes and drone attacks of foreign forces are not included in these reports either. Overall, UNAMA shows the civilians casualties caused by foreign forces very low, something that contradicts with the facts on the ground.
The same is true about UNAMA’s 2017 report, which attributes the responsibility for 65% of the civilian casualties to the anti-government elements. The report says that the pro-government forces were responsible only for the 19% of the casualties, 16 the Afghan Force and only 2% the foreign forces.
Attributing only 2% of the civilian casualties to the foreign forces is astonishing because in 2017 their role in the war and in the battleground was more than the past several years. Based on UNAMA’s report, the airstrikes carried out by pro-government forces has killed and injured 631 people (295 killed and 336 injured). This rate increased a 7% increase compared to 2016 and is the highest rate of civilian casualties caused by air attacks in a year since 2009, and this number of casualties is 6% of the overall civilian casualties in 2017. The NUG has also been silent against the airstrikes of the foreign forces in the past year, which is one of the reasons behind the increase in these attacks and the civilian casualties caused by them.
The future situation
To a greater extent, the NUG failed in its peace process and, therefore, it focused on the war. That is why there are concerns that 2018 will be even bloodier for Afghans. Since the beginning of 2018, the airstrikes of the foreign forces have also augmented and they have also used B52 bomber for their attacks. Overall, this strategy of the US in Afghanistan has complicated the situation.
In its recent report, the International Crisis Group has criticized the US for their war strategy and has blamed this strategy for the further escalation of the insecurities in 2018. Based on this report, between 2009 and 2012, the US has more than 100 thousand soldiers in Afghanistan and still could not defeat the Taliban through military means, while currently this group controls more territory of the country than ever since 2001.[2]
Due to the US’s emphasize on the war in Afghanistan, regional and international players such as Russia, China and Iran are suspicious of the US military presence in Afghanistan and believe that Washington does not want stability in Afghanistan and is only seeking the continuation of its military presence in the region. That is why that the involvements of these countries are increasing in the country on a daily basis.
Concerns about the security situation in 2018 are also increasing due to the boycott of the peace process by the Afghan Government and the US. After the peace process was boycotted by the US, through an open letter, the Taliban have called on the US Congress and people to pressurize on their government to alter their strategy from war to peace. The Taliban’s letter has three reasons:
First; the Taliban are under pressure due to the war strategy of the US and Afghan Government. Moreover, civilian casualties are increasing due to their attacks, which have negative consequences for them.
Second; through this letter, the Taliban wanted to challenge the US saying that the US does not want peace and stability in Afghanistan and it only wants the continuation of the war.
Third; the Taliban’s this letter shows that this group does not intend to engage in peace talks with the Afghan Government and they believe the US to be the main party of the peace talks because this group has always said that the Afghan Government does not have any authority.
Overall, this letter shows that this group will continue to fight against the government and the foreign forces. In response to this letter of the Taliban, the US Secretary of States said: “The Taliban must first conduct peace talks with the Afghan Government.”
Seeing the war and peace strategy of the Afghan government in the past, one can say that currently the Afghan Government has either lost its way or is unconsciously pursuing the current strategy, which brings neither peace nor security. Anyway, if both the Afghan Government and the Taliban want to enter the peace process from a stronger position, this process of peace will never begin, as experience in the past years have proved.
The End
[1] UNAMA, 2017 Annual Report on Civilians Casualties in Afghanistan, 15 Feb 2018, See it online:
[2] International Crisis Group, 31 Jan 2018, See it online:
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/afghanistan/dangerous-escalation-afghanistan