LATEST DEVELOPMENTS AND PROSPECTS OF THE AFGHAN PEACE PROCESS
According to the peace agreement between the US and the Taliban on 29th February, 2020, Intra-Afghan dialogue is a key step towards peace in Afghanistan. However, as agreed by the US in the peace deal, the Taliban emphasize on the release of their 5000 prisoners from the afghan government’s prisons before the commencement of intra-Afghan negotiations. The Taliban consider the release a key condition for the talks. As the Afghan government was not a part of the peace deal since the beginning and in order to be included in the process, it is signified as an obligation for the Afghan government to release the prisoners. In opposition, the Afghan president Mohammad Ashraf Ghani declined the prisoners release call and denoted that it is only within the authority of the Afghan government to make decisions about the release. Correspondingly, hostility between Mohammad Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah increased, which consequently, delayed the establishment of an all-inclusive delegation for the Intra-Afghan dialogue.
In addition to the prisoner’s release issue and complex political conditions, the Coronavirus pandemic further compounded the circumstances for peace. The US got engaged with Coronavirus-related internal matters, which decelerated the peace process. For the time being, political pressures on the Afghan government regarding the prisoners release issue and establishment of peace talks delegate by the international community have also been reduced due to the Covid-19 outbreak. Subsequently, the Afghan government got an opportunity to calmly deal with the peace process.
In short, we can say that considering the US-Taliban peace deal, there are three main obstacles towards intra-Afghan dialogue and bringing peace to Afghanistan: Prisoner release issue and increase in violence, hostility over the presidential elections and inability to establish a comprehensive delegation for peace talks, and the Coronavirus pandemic. All the obstacles are interconnected and are discussed in this analysis.
Prisoners Release Issue and Increase in Violence
Ever since the Afghan government started creating obstacles regarding the prisoners release issue, the Taliban expanded and hasten their attacks. Hence, the reduction in violence period came to an end and violence level amplified in the country. The Taliban attacked governmental establishments in different provinces, which killed dozens of soldiers and civilians. To back the Afghan government, the foreign forces commenced counterattacks, due to which, both sides of the peace deal accused each other for violating the peace agreement. The Taliban argue that their current stand is due to the US’s inability to release the 5000 thousand prisoners, as promised. Referring to the peace deal, they further argue that they have not promised to reduce violence.
On the other hand, to maintain balance and hold their side the peace deal, the US was forced to participate in Ashraf Ghani’ oath ceremony, which bolstered Ghani’s position for the presidency. However, during the swearing-in ceremony, Ghani agreed only to release 1500 prisoners of the Taliban and stipulated the release of the rest of prisoners to the instigation of intra-Afghan dialogue. The Taliban rejected Ghani’s proposal and stated that putting conditions to any article of the peace deal contradicts the agreement. Subsequently, both sides released a number of prisoners due to political pressures from the international community. However, agreement on the release of the rest of the prisoners seems complex.
It can be said that there is no explicit and detailed strategy to resolve the prisoners release issue. The main cause of this intricacy is the peace deal, which oblige the sidelined Afghan government to release the prisoners. If the issue remains unclear, the intra-Afghan negotiations will be delayed further and the war will intensify.
There are concerns that the delays in prisoner’s release process and increase in violence may utterly violate and nullify the peace deal between the US and the Taliban. Still, both sides strive to remain watchful in order to avoid nullification of the deal. When Mulla Beradar blamed the US through a proclamation for breaking the deal and increasing airstrikes on civilians, the US representatives met with the Taliban in Qatar in order to save the deal. Both sides reemphasized upon the complete implementation of the peace deal, prisoners release and reduction in violence.
Altercations Over the Presidential Elections and Formation of an All-Inclusive Negotiation Team
Inability to form a comprehensive delegation for intra-Afghan talks and disagreements over the presidential elections are other obstacles that challenging the peace process. Dissension over the Formation of a negotiation team seems a lasting dilemma, as the Afghan government is unwilling to let a delegation to negotiate peace with the Taliban which is not controlled by the government. The government deemed any opposing stands by politicians invalid and blamed them for their intention of weakening government’s approach. The negotiating team’s issue became more complicated after the announcement of the results of presidential elections. Consequently, the US postponed the payment of 1 billion dollars in order to pressure Ghani and Abdullah to resolve disagreements and form a unity government. The US and the European Union have accused the government for not being serious about the peace progress, which is why a negotiating team has not been formed yet.
Due to the pressures of international community, the Afghan government announced a list of negotiating team. Although others appreciated the decision, but politicians and civilians within the country were still opposing the formation of negotiating team. Locals believed that most of the team members are submissive, incompetent and have been selected based on personal relations. The Taliban also criticized the list and said the will not negotiate with the delegation. They further emphasized on formation of an all-inclusive negotiating team.
In short, we it can be said that the Afghan government prefers to upkeep the current situation instead of peace. The opportunity might miss out due to government’s Self-serving measures and the war might continue in the country. Apparently, the US and the Taliban want to prevent the deal from tearing apart. However, the Afghan government and some other political figures are not feeling responsible towards the peace process and seemingly have no concerns about its failure.
The Coronavirus Pandemic and Its Effects on the Peace Process
Since the time when the coronavirus spread in the most populated cities of the United States, the US government put all of its efforts to combat the virus. International politics and media are mainly focused on Covid-19 and its probable effects on the politics and economy of the world. Internal priorities also changed within Afghanistan and everyone’s attention was towards the outbreak. Consequently, the peace process lost first rank at priorities list. Because of the concerns regarding the Pandemic, political pressures on the Afghan government reduced, the altercations over presidential elections remained unresolved, prisoners release issue became less important and the intra-Afghan talk got postponed indefinitely. Seemingly, the Covid-19 Pandemic may not end soon and it is still unknown that when will the US, the Afghan nation and government return to its previous state. Hence, considering the obstacles, the future of Afghan peace does not seem bright and there is strong possibility that Afghans will be deprived from peace for a long time and the country will continue to burn in the flames of war.
References:
- افزایش خشونتهای طالبان؛ بیش از ۲۰ سرباز افغان و چهار غیرنظامی کشته شدند – https://www.bbc.com/persian/afghanistan-52387293
- طالبان: امریکا د سولې له تړونه سرغړونه کړې – https://www.pashtovoa.com/a/the-taliban-has-said-that-us-has-violated-the-agreement/5360808.html
- US officials discuss rocky peace agreement with Taliban in Qatar- https://english.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2020/4/14/us-officials-discuss-rocky-peace-agreement-with-taliban
- Pompeo to Afghan leaders: Make a deal with the Taliban or risk full U.S. troop pullout https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pompeo-afghan-leaders-make-deal-taliban-or-risk-full-u-n1174161
- د افغان سولې مذاکراتي ټیم ته غبرګونونه https://www.pashtovoa.com/a/5349958.html
- – د سولې له اعلان شوي مذاکراتي ټیم سره د طالبانو مخالفت -https://baztab.news/article/1302772