Gambling in Foreign Policy!

 

It seems that the national unity government has chosen a different path of foreign policy from its predecessor’s rule. The conversion of the policy is based on the prioritization of security and peace in the country and until peace and security is not provided in the country, nothing else will have positive result in the country.

President Ashraf Ghani believes that Pakistan is leading the Taliban, if Afghanistan is able to get trust of Pakistan, and both the countries agree with each other, so the issue with the Taliban will be ended, and Afghanistan will reach peace and security. For the mentioned reason he went to Pakistan, and then he had a visit to China to influence Pakistan through Chinese officials, because China is one of the closest countries in relationship with Pakistan, so Chinese officials will cooperate in the peace process of Afghanistan.

On the other hand, sensitivity between the relationship of New Delhi and Islamabad, by the request of Pakistan Ashraf Ghani reviewed the close relationship of Afghanistan and Pakistan that was founded during Karzai’s regime. The conversion of policies caused India, which cooperated Afghanistan approximately 2 billion dollars in the last thirteen years, to review its economic policies regarding Afghanistan. So most of the projects in Afghanistan that were supported by India stopped their activities.

 

President Ghani and Revision of Foreign Policy:

In the conference of “Heart of Asia” which was held in Beijing, President Ashraf Ghani stated about the foreign policy of the unity government as follows:

Geography has placed us at the heart of Asia and history has made us a pivotal intersection of contending powers and ideas.   Foreign policy, therefore, is intrinsically connected with domestic policy.   Recognizing that we are at the intersection of five circles of international relations, our goal is to provide a platform for collaboration of these states, organizations, powers and networks of virtue. Our immediate six neighbors form our first circle.  The Islamic world forms our second circle.   North America, Europe, Japan, Australia, and members of NATO-ISAF form our third circle.   Asia, being transformed into a continental economy, forms our fourth circle. And international development organizations, the UN, multinational firms, and international civil society and non-governmental organizations form our fifth circle.

Although, in prioritizing the circles and contexts of the relations between the governments President Ghani has given special value to the relationship with the historical power and ideological competitors, but he did not pay attention to the balance of the interests of those countries in Afghanistan that the countries define. So it is not wrong that Pakistani politicians appreciate the reaction of the declaration of President Ghani’s foreign policy and Pakistani newspapers has written that Pakistan is in the first and second circles of the foreign policy of the unity government of Afghanistan, because Pakistan is one of the neighboring and also Muslim country, but its competitor India declined to the fourth circle. So India, in spite of its generous cooperation in last thirteen years with Afghanistan, should accept its decline against Pakistan in Afghanistan.

 

Hidden Diplomacy:

President Ghani had secret agreements with the officials of Pakistan behind closed doors, the details of the agreements are not yet declared, but it seems that behind closed doors agreements against terrorism, he has given some privileges to Pakistan, including the submission of the people that Pakistan call them as its enemies, and they had taken asylum in Afghanistan.

On the other hand, the leadership of the Taliban ordered its commanders not to leave their locations during winter season and do not go to Pakistan. It seems that Pakistan also agreed to arrest some of the Taliban leaders and submit them to the Afghan Government, and the Taliban are aware of it and did not allow their leaders to go to Pakistan.

Afghanistan and Pakistan promised to create the opportunities for division of the Taliban groups. The Pakistan Government decided to encourage the former Taliban commanders, who left war, to create independent groups and start their own independent activities. One of those commanders is Mullah Mansur Dadullah. Three times the officials of Pakistan went to his house, which is located in Zhob of Peshawar within his tribe “Kakar”. Mullah Mansour, who has spent years in Pakistani prisons, rejected their request, but because of many pressures on him, he left Pakistan and came to Afghanistan.

Pakistan and Afghanistan mutually agreed that the office of Taliban in Qatar is not a proper place for negotiation and it should be moved somewhere else.

 

Geographical Location and Foreign Policy:

In his new foreign policy Ashraf Ghani emphasize that “the complexity is result of history, so we do not have any other way except accepting it. And we have to lead and manage it with principles but pragmatically…”

Ashraf Ghani is right that historical evolutions have forced forces over us, and those forces brought us to the conditions to be in need of the neighboring countries. The transit ways of the country are tied to the neighboring countries to the extent that if those ways are blocked for short terms, Afghanistan will face extreme economic crisis. However, the attempts of Karzai’s government for finding substitution for the transit, which was attracting the Indian and Iranian cooperation for activation of ChahBahar Port of Iran as a subsistence, transit port, it that way should be passed. But in the newly declared foreign policy of President Ghani this port is abandoned. Because, due to the newly declared foreign policy of Afghanistan, India informed Iran that it has stopped investing on the port.

 

Pakistan and Cooperation in the Peace Process of Afghanistan:

Ashraf Ghani requests Pakistan to cooperate with Afghanistan in the Afghan Peace Process. It means that Pakistan is able to bring the Taliban to negotiation with the Afghan Government.

The balance of influence of Pakistan over the Taliban is hidden, and with the attention to the fact that the Pakistan Taliban, who were controlled by ISI are now not under the control of Pakistan, so we cannot be sure that Pakistan will have control over Afghan Taliban. Moreover, the question rise that if Pakistan had control over the Afghan Taliban, why did it not prevents the establishment of the office in Qatar.

But Pakistanis have the skill of advertising through media, which is mostly pessimistic about Pakistan, and show it to Afghan politicians that they are the guardians of the Taliban, and move the foreign policy of Afghanistan toward their own interests.

 

The new officials of Afghanistan are fresh about Pakistan!

President Ashraf Ghani and his national security advisor Mohammad Hanif Atmar did not have any relationship with Pakistan, especially during the Jihad. Ashraf Ghani was living in the U.S. and Atmar was working with international NGOs in Peshawar of Pakistan. They do not know Pakistan truly, so it caused them that their foreign policy may take the form of a dangerous gambling game with Pakistan.

Paying attention to the fact that the demand of Pakistan from Afghanistan is not only tied to the relation of Afghanistan with India, there is no hope that the changes in the foreign policy will have positive impacts. Most of analysts believe that the policy of Pakistan toward Afghanistan is not changed; it has changed only the method of the game.

The End