The First Step on the Difficult Path to Peace

 

It was in late 2009 when Taliban believed that the U.S. failed in its mission for which Afghanistan was invaded. Therefore, the Deputy of Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, Mullah Abdul Ghani Biradar suggested to the leader of the Taliban to agree with the negotiations if the Americans really demand and end their presence in Afghanistan.

Till 2009 the international community believed that Taliban do not have any other strategy except war. But when the US expressed inclinations towards the peace process, Taliban leader let an expert delegation proceed the process.

It was essential to choose people of their choice to pursue the expanded mission. Mullah Mohammad Omar directed to convert the Political Committee of the Islamic Emirate, which did not have any oblivious activity, to Political Office. Mullah Taib Agha was selected as head of the newly founded political commission instead of Mullah Agha Jan Mutasim, who previously headed the political committee. When the Political Office was founded they established some contacts with Kai Eide, the Special envoy of UN to Afghanistan.

 

The Concerns of Pakistan

In Dec 2009, Taiyeb Agha expressed in an interview with London based Al-Hayat Arabic newspaper, that they are ready for direct talks with Americans in case they demand.

Even before the interview Pakistan felt that without its permission the Taliban are trying to start negotiation with the U.S., and the inventor of this movement is Mullah Abdul Ghani Biradar. As the result, “ISI” arrested Mullah Biradar in an U.S. army joint operations in Karachi. The aim of Pakistan for joint operation with the U.S. was to create space between the Taliban and the U.S. to cause obstacles for the direct negotiations between them.

 

The First Contacts:

But the Taliban continued their attempts. For building background for contacts with the U.S., their first contacts started with the representatives of Germany Bernd Mutzelburg and Michael Steiner for mediation. The attempts of a German diplomat Rudiger Konig, who was German Ambassador in Islamabad during 1997-1998, and later on became German Ambassador in Kabul (that time Taiyeb Agha was Ambassador of Islamic Emirate in Islamabad, and that time Rudiger Konig and Sayed Taiyeb Agha became friends) paved the way for trust between them for strengthened the process, and some meetings took place with the delegations of the U.S. The Americans were emphasizing that the Taliban should have an official address out of Afghanistan. The Taliban accepted their request.

 

Why the Taliban have Chosen Qatar?

The Taliban has given four conditions for the country that could be the host of office of the Taliban:

1. It should be a Muslim country.
2. It should not be a neighboring country.
3. It should not have sent military forces to Afghanistan.
4. It should not have done enmity with the Taliban After 2001.

Based on these conditions the countries like Turkey, UAE, and Jordan could not be the host of the negotiations. As after 2001 some of the Taliban leaders were imprisoned in Saudi, so based on this enmity it also could not be the host of the peace negotiation. Based on these conditions the Taliban accepted Qatar a reasonable place for peace negotiation.

On the other hand, ten members of the political office were selected as the authoritative delegation for the office of Qatar. At the beginning six of them went to Qatar and after sometime the remaining four of them went there. Later on, some other members also became the part of the officials of the Qatar’s office.

 

Pakistan Opposes Qatar

Since the beginning Pakistan was against the office of the Taliban in Qatar, and it wanted that the office should be opened in another country like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, or UAE. This issue caused the U.S. to be concerned about the role of the Taliban’s office in the peace process, and changed its policy about the office of Qatar, though in various occasions the leader of the Taliban Mullah Mohammad Omar has given the message that the Taliban’s office in Qatar was the only address for peace negotiations.

It seems that in the negotiation of Pakistanis and Ashraf Ghani, Pakistan forced its desire on Afghanistan that the peace negotiations should take place in any other country, except Qatar, therefore Afghan government emphasizes that the negotiation should take place anywhere else except Qatar. This issue can be the source of dispute for starting the negotiation process.

 

Guarantee for complete Pull-out of US forces

The position of the Taliban is that while the main enemy and reason of their war is the U.S., so firstly the negotiation should take place with the U.S., so they will be sure that the U.S. will withdraw all of its forces from Afghanistan, and it does not ask for bases in Afghanistan. Though it seems that the U.S. has given green light to the Taliban that they will withdraw its overall forces from Afghanistan at the end of 2016, but because of the lack of the Taliban’s trust over the U.S. the Taliban want to give mediation to a superpower country, so the country will insure the Taliban for the promises that the U.S. gives. The only permanent member of the UN Security Council that has good relations with the Taliban is China, meanwhile it is a trusted country to Pakistan. It is not coincidental if the formal website of the Taliban publish an optimistic article about the positive rule of China in the peace negotiations.

 

Silence Policy

The Pakistani media reported that the leader of the Taliban has given permission of the peace negotiation with the government of Kabul, therefore the negotiation may start, but yet they did not say anything about the location of the negotiation.

The Taliban did not reject these reports directly, but they reported that their formal position is expressed only by their spokespersons, and the reports that are established except them, those are not accepted by them. The Taliban are concerned that reporting such news before starting negotiation is used as advertising tribute against them.

But the positive point in the latest newsletter of the Taliban is that there is some flexibility visible in it. In this newsletter there is nothing mentioned about the exit of foreign forces from the country before the start of negotiation. But they mentioned that the trip of the new defense minister of the U.S. Ashton Carter to Afghanistan was an obstacle for the negotiation; because he emphasized for revision of the decision of exist of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan. The Taliban believe that the U.S. does not have stable position, therefore they cannot trust the promises given by the U.S.

 

The Achievements of Pakistan:

But yet the Pakistan was able to get the below privileges from Afghan Government:

1. Afghan government completely revised its foreign policy with India with the request of Pakistan. It was one of the demands of Pakistan, which it was asking for many years.
2. Submitted some Pakistani Taliban to Pakistan and also submitted 15 stable warriors to the Chinese government.
3. Secretly allowed the Pakistani military to enter Afghanistan for following the Taliban if needed.
4. Afghan military officials can get military education in Pakistan.
5. Earlier Afghanistan was accepting the Durand line as an imaginary line, but with the new policy it will be converted to a trench, and the issue of Durand between the two countries will be ended silently.

 

Result:

It seems that the negotiation between the Taliban and the U.S., and then between the Taliban and the Afghan Government will start, but meanwhile the war will also continue. In the negotiations, the Taliban will give privileges in any field, but they will never give up their demand of implementation of Sharia in Afghanistan. Because if they pull back themselves in this field just a little bit, they will fail in all of the fields.

So we can predict that the negotiation will be complex, and will take time, and it seems that the major part of negotiation will be negotiation between religious scholars of both the parties. In any condition, there is hope that this transformation will be a positive step toward ending the bloodshed war that took 36 years, and even the global superpowers were also weak for finding solutions for it through coercive power.

The End