Peace Process: Background and Obstacles toward Success

 

The mistake that the U.S. and Afghan leaders done after the incident of 9/11 of 2001 in Bonn, it was same as the mistake that the Mujahidin done after the withdrawal of the Soviet Union forces from Afghanistan. In the conference there were two big groups, which later on started war against the U.S. and international forces during the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, those groups were the Taliban and the Hisb-e-Islami. Not only these two groups were not invited to the Bonn Conference, but they were also excluded from taking part in the power of the upcoming government in the country.

Later on, in 2002 and 2003 there was not any share in the government given to them, nor was there any negotiation with them. But when in 2005 the Taliban got strengthened some of the countries, to which security and authority was given in some provinces, started negotiation with the Taliban. For example, the British Forces started negotiation with the Taliban in Helmand Province, and the French Forces started negotiation with the Taliban in Tagab and Kapisa, these negotiations took place before the U.S. and the Taliban negotiations. In a low level, after these negotiations the Taliban started negotiation with the Special Representative of UN for Afghanistan Kai Eide[1].

While in 2008 Barak Obama won the presidential election in the U.S. under the slogan of “Change” and “Ending War”, on the other hand he increased the number of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan, in addition the process of negotiation with the Taliban started in 2009, the Taliban started negotiation with two parties (the U.S. and the Afghan Government) in Qatar, Germany, UAE, Japan, Tajikistan, and Turkey; but because of the arrestment of Mullah Biradar in Pakistan and opposition of Hamid Karzai with the flag and board of the Islamic Emirate in the office of Qatar, the negotiation process completely stopped; but later on, after the exchange of a U.S. soldier (Baw Bergdal)  and five Taliban leaders, once again the negotiation between the U.S. and the Taliban resumed.

 

The Attempts of New Government for peace:

During the presidential election of 2014, both the famous candidates Ashraf Ghani, and Abdullah have given promises to the nation that at the first step Ashraf Ghani will start negotiation with the neighbouring, regional, and then global countries: he spoke with the Turkish President Recep Taiyeb Erdogan in Kabul, and had trips to China, Saudi, and Pakistan, these attempts mean that peace process is one of the most important part of Ashraf Ghani’s foreign policy.

While one of the military schools of Pakistan was attacked, it influenced the policies of Pakistan, and the idea of Pakistani militants and Pakistani politicians became one single idea against the Pakistani Taliban. Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif expressed the policy of Pakistan against extremism within 21 articles with the approval of all military, intelligence, and political parties’ leaders, and said that Pakistan is changed regarding extremism.

Later on Pakistani officials had some trips to Kabul, while in March Raheel Sharif came for third time to Kabul and promised for the readiness of the Taliban for negotiation, for peace process Ashraf Ghani also started meetings with the social activists, religions and Jihadi leaders, and politicians, and he asked many of them to write advises, and strategies regarding this topic to him.

It is important to know that where the negotiation between the Taliban and the Afghan government will take place, and who, from both parties, will participate in the negotiation. Based on their experience and policies the Taliban may emphasize on Qatar, but yet the Afghan Government did not choose any country for negotiation. Regarding this issue Ashraf Ghani asked many people for advises, and the final decision may be with him.

Overall, the issue of place is not that much important, and it is not important to delay the negotiation for its place; but the main issue is the agenda of the negotiation, because it is the agenda of the negotiation that can stabilize the future of the country, and the same agenda may face both the parties with closed doors.

 

The Points of Disagreement for both the Parties:

Before starting negotiations both the parties should have reasonable answers for the below points, so the negotiation will not face any challenge and will not delay again;

1. The existence of foreign forces in Afghanistan and their military bases:

To what extent the Taliban can accept the existence of the U.S. forces in Afghanistan? Will be the Afghan Government ready to give green sign to the U.S. for its exit up to the end of 2016? Because, up to date the Taliban kept up their fight for the mentioned reason, and after the withdrawal of the U.S. forces they will not have any other reason to keep up war! So it is important for both the parties to compromise on something that is acceptable for both sides. At the first stage this agreement should be the gradual withdraw of the U.S. forces from Afghanistan, because even if the Taliban want the withdrawal of the foreign forces from Afghanistan, it will take at least one year.

2. Emirate or Elections?

The second important issue is either the Taliban want to establish Emirate once again, or they are ready to participate in the system of elections? If the Taliban want Emirate, there is at least the necessity of asking a Loya Jirga or referendum, to clarify what the majority of the nation want? As the Taliban are not accepting presidency and elections, so it is important that the trustworthy religious leaders from both the parties discuss it through a commission.

3. Constitution:

Another aspect that not only the Taliban but also Hezb-e-Islami (Hekmatyar) also criticize it, it is the issue of amendment of Constitution. It is the most important issue that Afghan Government and the Taliban disagree on; some high-ranking officials in Kabul says that Constitution should be the redline and the government should not deal with the Taliban out of the Constitution; but with the inauguration of the unity government and the establishment of the CEO position the Constitution was questioned, and Ashraf Ghani created a position that is against the Constitution. While they create such post that is not mentioned in the Constitution, so why they cannot amend the Constitution for the national interests and peace of the country?

 

Steps that Cooperates the Success of Peace Process:

For the success of peace process it is important to consider at least the below points:

• The government should make a group of such religious scholars by which it will convince and quite the opponents of peace.
• The government should not look to the Taliban as the instruments of Pakistan, but it should negotiate with them as an Afghan party.
• The government should arise the topic of peace process as a national interest in media.
• Both the parties, the government and the Taliban, should convince the women activists who are against the peace negotiation. If they are not convinced, the government and the Taliban should create a group of women activists to struggle against those who are against the negotiation of peace process.
• At the last stage of the peace negotiations the Afghan government and International Organizations should work on the ways and provide the opportunities of employment to return the refugees that are living in Pakistan.
• For negotiation with the Taliban, the government should select such delegation that does not have history of rivalry with the Taliban, and they should act as the real mediators between the two parties.

 

Opponents of Peace:

There are some countries in region that count the peace process and close relation with Pakistan as a risk to their investments in Afghanistan, and even now by using some networks and personalities they destroy the peace process and negotiation inside the country under various names. To prevent the obstacles created by those countries in the peace negotiations, the government should compromise with those countries, and insure those countries that with the peace process not only their security will not be challenged, but their legal interests will be also more secure.

The neighbouring countries of Afghanistan and the regional countries should be insured that by peace and security in Afghanistan, not only the peace and stability of those countries will be secured, but it will also provide a great opportunity for economic development of the region.

The End

[1]  Read the details of the Taliban and the UN negotiations in the book of Kai Eide ”The Power Struggle over Afghanistan”: