The rising tensions between Kabul-Islamabad and the future of QCG
Following the ups and downs of bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan, once again these relations have reached its most tenuous phase.
After the bloody explosion in Kabul, the Afghan President said that he does not expect Pakistan to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table. He also added that in Quadrilateral Talks, Pakistan had pledged in writing to go after those Taliban who refused to join the Peace Process.
Before this, the Kabul-Islamabad relations were deteriorated when a similar explosion occurred in Shah-Shaheed, Kabul. At that time too, Ghani accused Pakistan of supporting the Taliban and said that he does not trust Pakistan. But the question is what the direction of bilateral Pak-Afghan relations is?
The NUG and ups and downs in Kabul-Islamabad ties
After the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG), unlike his predecessor Hamid Karzai, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani adopted a policy of rapprochement towards Pakistan. He granted privileges to Pakistan and tried to reduce Pakistani concerns, and hence distance itself from India.
The main issue in new Kabul-Islamabad relations was “peace in Afghanistan”. In this regard Pakistan made many promises to Afghanistan; the senior officials of the two countries paid mutual visits to both countries and thus the hopes for peace in Afghanistan increased. But after several months of warm relations between the two countries, when security situation in Afghanistan was deteriorated and, moreover, Pakistan did not fulfill its promises to bring Taliban to the negotiation table in March 2015, and for the first time the Pak-Afghan relations started to change since the formation of the NUG.
Hence, after March 2015, the NUG changed its policy towards Pakistan, and tried to improve its relations with India. In March and April 2015, Abdullah and Ghani visited India one after another. Thus, Pakistan came under more pressure than before. Therefore, with the initiative of Pakistan and at the presence of Pakistani intelligence a meeting was held between Masoom Stanekzai Chairman of the High Peace Council Secretariat and some members of the Taliban in Urumqi, China; but the Taliban denied their participation in this meeting.
In July 2015, Pakistan for the first time became able to bring the Taliban to face to face talks with the Afghan government in Murree; but these talks became stalled with the disclosure of the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar. Later, a new wave of insecurity and instability began in Afghanistan. Kunduz came under Taliban control for two weeks and Kabul [1]and some other provinces witnessed many deadly explosions. Thus bilateral Pak-Afghan relations were deteriorated after one year of the NUG’s formation.
After the efforts made by China, United States and United Nations to improve bilateral relations between the two countries and the visit of Pakistani Pashtun parties’ leaders, the Afghan President met Nawaz Sharif Pakistani Prime Minister at the sideline of the Climate Change Conference in Paris. In this meeting, Nawaz Sharif proposed quadrilateral peace talks between Afghanistan-Pakistan-China-US, which Ghani accepted.
In December 2015, Ashraf Ghani traveled to Islamabad to participate in the Heart of Asia Conference and at the sidelines of this conference quadrilateral meeting between Afghanistan- Pakistan-China-US was also held. In this meeting the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) was formed to facilitate the negotiations.
Although four meeting of QCG is held in Kabul and Islamabad, but the Taliban has refused to participate in these talks. Refusal of participation in these talks by the Taliban made Afghanistan suspicious to the intentions of Pakistan. But after recent explosion in Kabul, the relations are more tenuous than ever.
Kabul’s recent stance against Islamabad
Since the beginning of the Quadrilateral Peace Talks, Pakistan has frequently failed to fulfill its promises to bring the Taliban to negotiation table. At the beginning of 1395, after the intensification of war by the Taliban, the Afghan government lost hope in Quadrilateral Peace Talks. It is why, a day before the explosion in Kabul, Ashraf Ghani had stated that he has boycotted quadrilateral peace talks[2].
On April 19, 2016, a massive explosion occurred in Kabul and Taliban claimed responsibility for that. According to the statistics of the Afghan government this explosion left 64 dead and 347 injured. In response to this explosion Ashraf Ghani adopted a harsh position against Pakistan and said that he no longer trusts Pakistan. ‘We do not expect Pakistan to bring the Taliban to the negotiation table, but we want Pakistan to honor its commitments based on the four nation’s agreement’, said Ashraf Ghani in a joint session of both houses of the National Assembly on April 25. He further added, ‘Pakistan should no longer continue the good and bad terrorist policy, and have to act as a responsible state and in this regard, the world is with us’. He warned that if Pakistan did not change its policy, the Afghan government will complain to the Security Council of the United Nations, International Institution and international community[3].
On the other hand, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah postponed his trip to Pakistan after the Kabul explosion and thus somehow blamed Pakistan for it[4]. Postponement of this trip deteriorated the bilateral relations even more. This trip was the only opportunity that could decrease the mistrust in the relations between the both countries.
Pakistan’s stance
Pakistani Foreign Ministry rejected recent remarks of Ashraf Ghani about Pakistan and in response to the new stance of Afghanistan it has announced that bringing Taliban to the negotiation table is not solely the responsibility of Pakistan.
On the other hand, following the intensification of Kabul-Islamabad relations, military of Pakistan has once again began their rocket attacks on Lalpoor and Goshta districts of Nangarhar province. The Afghan Foreign Ministry summoned Pakistani Ambassador for clarification[5]. According to reports, in these rocket attacks, one Afghan border police is dead and two other are injured.
The future of Peace and Quadrilateral Talks
After deterioration of relations between the two countries, now the future of peace seems dark. Although failure in the Quadrilateral negotiation is the main reason behind the deterioration of relations between the two countries, but Pakistani officials are still talking about the initiation of these talks in near future.
On April 25, the Afghan Refugees and Repatriation Minister visited Pakistan as a result of an official invitation by Pakistan; the main reason of his trip was to register unregistered Afghan migrants and to extend the validation date of migration IDs of registered Afghan migrants[6]. According to the Refugees and Repatriation Minister, Sartaj Aziz the Advisor to Pakistani Prime Minister has assured him of reinitiating peace talks.
On the other hand, Sartaj Aziz Pakistani National Security Advisor met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. In this meeting the both sides agreed to establish close cooperation to maintain peace and security in Afghanistan to expand the activities of the QCG[7].
The Afghan National Security Advisor also visited China on April 17, 2016, although expansion of military and economic ties are said to be the main purpose of this visit but it seems that Afghanistan is trying to pressurize Pakistan through China for one last time.
On the other hand, the sixth session of Senior Officials Meeting of Heart of Asia conference was held under Istanbul Process on April 26, 2016, in New Delhi where the Afghan Deputy Foreign Minister Hekmat Khalil Karzai and Pakistani Deputy Foreign Minister Aziz Ahmad Chaudhari had also participated.
Referring to the recent incident in Kabul, Hekmat Khalil Karzai said in his speech that, peace efforts will not have specific conclusions unless the support for terrorism is stopped. About the quadrilateral negotiation he said the overarching goal of this process was face to face talks with the Taliban and according to the agreement of these talks if the Taliban were not prepared to negotiate then necessary measures will be taken against them. But Pakistani Deputy Foreign Minister stressed on shared commitments of all parties of quadrilateral peace talks in order to initiate peace talks[8].
According to the reports, a delegation of senior officials of the Qatar Office of the Taliban has arrived to Pakistan. It is said that Shahabuddin Delawar, Jan Mohammad Madani and Mullah Abas Stanekzai are the members of this delegation. Media has quoted the Statement of the Taliban that the purpose of this trip is solving the problems of the Afghan Migrants in Pakistan, border issues and negotiations about releasing the Taliban prisoners from Pakistani prisons[9]; but some international and Pakistan Medias have released news that beside Pakistani Officials this delegation would also meet the representatives of China. If it is true, then in current situation China would be the last hope to initiate peace talks.
The end
[1] For instance on August 9, 2015, an explosion happened in Shah Shaheed area of Kabul which had vast financial damages and casualties. Although nobody claimed responsibility for the explosion but it highly impacted Kabul-Islamabad relations.
[2] https://csrskabul.com/pa/?p=2402
[3] http://president.gov.af/ps/news/76964
[4] http://ceo.gov.af/fa/news/59339
[5]http://www.darivoa.com/content/pakistani-ambassador-summoned-to-afghan-foreign-ministry/3303086.html
[6] http://morr.gov.af/fa/news/60726
[7] http://www.mofa.gov.pk/pr-details.php?mm=MzY4MQ,,
[8] http://www.mofa.gov.pk/pr-details.php?mm=MzY4Mg,,
[9] http://www.voanews.com/content/afghan-taliban-confirms-delegation-visiting-pakistan/3304525.html