John Kerry mediation and rumors of change in government system

After the announcement of the preliminary results of presidential election, the role of foreigner’s increased gradually in the election process and finally U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry with his travel to Kabul ended the bargaining of the both candidates. After the mediation of John Kerry speculations raised that behind the scene an understanding over the change of the current governmental system and a collation government has taken place which caused diverse reactions.

What is the root cause of such rumors and also if they are true what would be the results? The influence and interference of foreigner’s especially the United States of America in election process are the issues analyzed here in this analysis:

Foreign intervention in election a big challenge for Afghanistan

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry mediated in 2009 election between Hamid Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah. Abdullah Abdullah was expecting the mediation of John Kerry again and therefore did not accept any mediation by Afghans or through legal channels. It seems that a day after announcement of preliminary results threatening by announcing parallel government was from the fear of not implementing the commitments as happened in 2009 given to Abdullah Abdullah.

The mediation and resolving all the problems by John Kerry was surprising, but later the politicians and different parts had some statements or reports published which caused new concerns and reactions of the people.

Apparently, the audit of all ballots, accepting the final result by both candidates, and agreeing on a national unity government were the points on which the agreement is reached. But since one of the candidates did not see himself as winner of the election, he rejected all types of the technical results, and with fulfilling the first condition he was giving another condition, so it did not seemed that the main issue is of recounting and audit of the votes but the main issue is agreement on distribution of the power in the coming government.

United States managed the electoral parties as to have more chance of influence and it seems that threatening by a parallel government from one of the candidates was also due to U.S. interference, otherwise any kind of instability and crisis in Afghanistan is not in its favor.

United States through tactful management of election laid foundation of a government of the coming five years which would be indebted to U.S. and world community.

After mediation of John Kerry, reports about a supposed coup before his arrival to Kabul were for justifying the ashamed intervention of U.S. in a national democratic process.

However, the role of United States in Afghan election is considered as an attempt for isolation of Hamid Karzai in this process, because Karzai is still opponent of changing the governmental system, singing the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) or at all with a comprehensive role of U.S. in the politics of Afghanistan and their interventions.

On the other hand from the statements of the President we can see that the mediation of United States in the election disagreements was not the demand of Afghanistan and U.S. according to their plan sent John Kerry to Kabul for mediation between two candidates.

John Kerry mediation and efforts to change the government system

Some western media published reports about an agreement over the change in governmental system in Afghanistan, something that Abdullah Abdullah had already planned to implement after his success in election. According to these reports, however this concept is in its initial stages, but at the big picture both of the candidates have agreed to create a new position of prime minister.

Since United States supported the presidential system in last one decade, but now it seems that they had some attempts of changing the governmental system and are not satisfied with the current type of government in Afghanistan. The hands used for defamation of electoral process might be those who were paving the way for implementing other political concepts.

If the speculations about an agreement over changing the current governmental system and giving the position of prime minister to losing candidate is even not serious. But as Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai did not select someone from Tajik tribe in his team and lately promised with Ahmad Zia Massoud that he would be appointed as Prime Minister all shows that the plan for changing the system existed from the beginning.

However, the electoral team of Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai rejected such rumors and President Karzai also denounced the change in governmental system, but it seems that the reports of some U.S. media closed to White House can be an attempt to pave way and make mentality for accepting such a change. However Abdullah Abdullah team spreads such speculation for empowering their part in the coming government.

Since change in the governmental system need the change in constitution, another attempt for justifying the general public has been done, that is the promise of an executive post with Ahmad Zia Massoud, which might be upgraded to Prime Minister after change in the constitution.

Challenging process of giving role to losing candidate

Since the losing electoral team seems satisfied with mediation of John Kerry, it shows that a deal over power-sharing has been reached. After defamation of electoral process and other challenges that exist the winner team is also to accept the deal as the last resort and pave way to form a weak government.

However the mediation of the foreigners was as the last option and Hamid Karzai who initially opposed such interference finally accepted the mediation of UNAMA and even the mediation of John Kerry, but it seems that it brought the process to another challenging era.

There are some important points regarding power-sharing under the name of national unity government. First, recount of all votes cast the result of which will be accepted by both candidates and the winning candidate will become the legitimate President of the country forming a new government according to his own platform. Here, what is the meaning of including losing candidate as agreed in the deal?

If an agreement over distribution of positions is already reached, it is disrespect for the votes cast by Afghan people. Although forming a new government only from winning team and entirely excluding losing side from political arena is one of the weaknesses of the government. The government should be careful with regards to taking the national combination into account, but still forming government based on deals is a major plot against Afghans.