The NUG-HI peace deal; the background and future prospects
The peace deal between the Afghan government and Hezb-e-Islami (HI) was signed by the leader of HI and the Afghan President on September 29, 2016. Before the final signature ceremony, the deal was signed by the head of HI (Hekmatyar) delegation Engineer Amin Karim and the Afghan National Security Advisor Hanif Atmar on September 22, 2016.
A great ceremony was organized in the Afghan Presidential Palace (Arg), where the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, former President Hamid Karzai, Chief Executive Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, the Afghan Vice President Sarwar Danish, the first and second Deputy Chief Executives Engineer Mohammad Khan and Mohammad Muhaqiq, former Jihadi leaders, members of HI’s delegation, foreign diplomats and some others had participated.
In this ceremony, Hekmatyar delivered his speech and signed the deal via a video link in Afghan Presidential Palace. The Afghan President also signed the peace deal on behalf of the Afghan government and delivered his speech in this regard. Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Amin Karim, Pir Sayed Ahmad Gailani, Ghairat Baheer and Mrs. Balkhi also delivered their speeches.
The background of peace talks between the Afghan government and HI, perseverance of these talks after the formation of the National Unity Government (NUG) and HI’s future in the country are the issues that are analyzed here.
The background of HI
HI has a forty years background in Afghan politics and same as Jamiat-e-Islami it is a branch of Islamic Movement of Afghanistan. During the Soviet-Afghan war, HI and Jamiat-e-Islami were the two most influential groups in the country. Later-on when the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, HI’s activities stopped in the country and the leader of HI Engineer Gulbudin Hekmatyar then left the country.
During the Taliban regime, HI was marginalized from the Afghan issue but after the US attack on Afghanistan when the new government was established in Afghanistan; Gulbudin Hekmatyar termed the presence of the foreign troops as “occupation” and under the name of HI, he began armed struggle against foreign troops. Since 2001, most of HI members have come to Kabul and have taken part in the Afghan government.
The background of Peace talks between the Afghan government and HI
Although the exact date of the beginning of the HI’s negotiation with the Afghan government is not known, but according to official statements these talks began in 2010. It is noteworthy that earlier some hezb members had also came to Kabul but it is yet to be known whether they had come by themselves or were sent by Hekmatyar?
Regarding official talks between the Afghan government and HI (Hekmatyar) a source said to CSRS that when the head of HI’s political commission and Hekmatyar’s brother-in-law, Dr. Ghairat Baheer (an individual close to Hekmatyar) were released from the prison in 1387; they were the guests of Karzai in Afghan Presidential Palace for several days and relations, through Dr. Ghairat Baheer, with HI (Hekmatyar) had started back in those days. But according to media’s information, relations between the Afghan government and HI began when the US President Barrack Obama announced the beginning of the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2011.
Using the opportunity which was provided after the announcement of the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan and tenuous relations between Karzai’s government and the United States, HI sent its delegation, under the leadership of Dr. Ghairat Baheer and Qutbudin Helal, for peace talks in Kabul. At that time, Hezb-e-Islami proposed a 15-point proposal, the most important of which were as follows:
- As of July 2010 the withdrawal of foreign troops must begin and within six months they must leave Afghanistan.
- A full turnover of security to the Afghan security forces.
- Foreigners should not build prisons inside the country.
- All the engaged parties will announce a cease fire for the time.
- Foreign fighter will not stay in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of foreign troops.
- After the withdrawal of the foreign troops, new presidential and parliamentary elections will be held and until the new election the current President and Parliament would continue functioning.[1]
Karzai’s government did not accept this proposal and thus these talks failed. Later in April 2012, once again HI sent its delegation to conduct peace negotiation with Kabul; at a time that the Taliban’s Political Office in Qatar was about to open and the Afghan government had opposed direct peace talks between the US and the Taliban. The HI delegation, once again, presented their peace proposal but, once again, the Afghan government did not show interest to it.
The peace deal between the NUG and HI
After the formation of the NUG, HI sent its delegation to Kabul and peace talks between the Afghan government and HI began. But at that time the Afghan government had appropriated most of its attention to improve its relations with Pakistan and to make peace with the Taliban; but when the quadrilateral talks headed towards failure, in the joint press release of the third meeting of Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG), HI was also mentioned as part of the talks.
Releasing a statement on March 12, 2016, HI (Hekmatyar) stated that the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had invited the party to join the peace process and that the party has accepted it. Peace talks between the Afghan government and HI became serious from that time on; but some circles inside the country tried to sabotage these talks and as a result of these difference both afghan government and hizb side reached agreement after some months.
The peace deal between the NUG and HI consists of three chapters and 25 articles. The first chapter discusses about legislation, foreign troops’ withdrawal from the country and the principles of democracy. Chapter two spells out the commitments of the government and chapter three focuses on HI’s commitments.
Generally, in this agreement, both sides have emphasized on supporting the withdrawal of foreign military forces, recognition of current Afghan constitution, removal of HI’s leaders and member from the UN blacklists, announcing ceasefire and releasing the prisoners of both sides.
Since no guarantee has been mentioned in order to implement the commitments in the agreement, therefore, the implementation of the deal and the upcoming three months would be challenging to both sides; one of the challenges that the Afghan government have to deal with would be to remove the names of HI’s leaders and members from the UN and other countries’ blacklists in the “shortest possible time”. Besides that, the government is supposed to release the HI-related prisoners within the upcoming three months.
On the other hand, the two sides are yet to reach a consensus over giving protocol to HI leader, HI’s presence in the government and other minor issues; these issues would be resolved by the HI delegation and High Peace Council members in the future.
Although, the peace deal with HI, is believed to be an achievement of the NUG; but HI’s peace with the government would not have deep effects in the battlefield nor would this peace deal provide the way for vis-à-vis talks with the Taliban- the most powerful group in the battlefield so far. There are also some opinions that peace deal with HI would probably make peace with the Taliban even more difficult; because the government would expect peace deal with the Taliban under easy conditions, as the conditions of HI, which might not be possible in the case of Taliban.
HI’s future in the country
Generally, HI’s future in the country depends on two issues;
First, whether the HI leader Engineer Gulbuddin Hekmatyar would be able to bring all the factions of HI under the umbrella of one sole party?
Second, how would HI treat the Taliban and a number of political groups inside the county which it had issues with in the past?
Through a pre-recorded video which was played in the ceremony of signing the peace deal, Hekmatyar on the one hand invited the Taliban to join the peace process and on the other hand, called the Taliban’s armed struggle incorrect which would have psychologically negative effects in the ranks of the Taliban. But the Taliban have always seen the Afghan government’s peace offers as complete surrender and has, therefore, always rejected these offers. Besides that there is no doubt that Hekmatyar would confront his political oppositions after coming in Kabul and besides gathering various factions of HI under one party, Hekmatyar’s position regarding the Taliban and other political oppositions would also be important in determining the fate of HI.
The end
[1] Read the 15-point proposal of Gulbudin Hekmatyar here: http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2010/03/hekmatyars_peace_pla.php