Impeachment Trial of Donald Trump and its Impact on Elections 2020

April 21, 2019 President Donald Trump speaks with then-President-elect Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump said for Zelensky, now president, during which he solicits Zelensky’s help in gathering potentially damaging information about his principal Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden. That night, a staff member at the White House Office of Management and Budget signs a document that officially puts military aid for Ukraine on hold, the text was released by the House Intelligence Committee[1]. It came after the White House released a summary of a call between Trump and the Ukrainian president, in which Trump is shown to have pressed the leader to probe former Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter. [2]  In 24 September House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday announced an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump, amid a growing drumbeat of criticism following reports that Trump pressed Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden and his son, this is the third time in US history that the president has been impeached by parliament. [3]

The Legal Processes of Impeachment Inquiry

According to Article II, Section 4 of the US Constitution, the President, his Vice President, and other civil servants may be impeached and light-duty for committing national treason, bribery, and other age-related or other ordinary crimes. Congress of the United States of America United States of America and the legislative branch of government consists of two chambers, the Senate and the House of Representatives impeached President jurisdiction of America in the form of a combination to the House of Representatives (Wolesi Jirga), the Senate (Upper House Jirga) and the judiciary has been entrusted. [4]an impeachment resolution must be introduced by a member of the House of Representatives.The speaker of the House must then direct the U.S. House Committee on the Judiciary (or a special committee) to hold a hearing on the resolution to decide whether to put the measure to a vote by the full chamber and when to hold such a vote.A simple majority of the Judiciary Committee must approve the resolution.If the Judiciary Committee approves the resolution, it moves to a full vote on the House floor. If a simple majority of the those present and voting in the House approve an article of impeachment, then the president is impeached. [5] The procedure then moves to the Senate where a “trial” is held to determine if the president committed a crime. There is no set procedure for the trial. How it is conducted would be set by the Senate leadership. Members of the House serve as “managers” in the Senate trial. Managers serve a similar role as prosecutors do in a criminal trial, they present evidence during the procedure. The president would have counsel to represent him at the Senate process. The chief justice of the U.S. Supreme Court presides over the trial.Senators listen to the evidence presented, including closing arguments from each side and retire to deliberate. Senators then reconvene and vote on whether the president is guilty or not guilty of the crimes he is accused of. It takes a two-thirds vote of the Senate to convict. If the president is found guilty, he is removed from office and the vice president is sworn-in as president. [6] First stage of Trump’s impeachment, voting in Wolesi Jirga, completed on December 18, 2019.[7] As a result, the president must be officially tried. The second phase, the Senate trial, is ongoing and will be completed in a week or two. It is noteworthy that Donald Trump is on trial for two counts of abuse of office and obstruction of justice.

 Could Impeachment Trail Shape The Presidential Elections 2020

That is not why the Founders established impeachment. Indeed, they feared that impeachment could be used by one party in control of the House against a president of the other party. But the good news is that Americans see through this. The polls are swinging against Democrats, and this charade of an impeachment is simply benefiting the reelection campaign of Trump. The charade will then move to the Senate, where it will end with a failure to convict and an exoneration for Trump as it should[8].With the impeachment case in the US Senate under scrutiny, there are two possible outcomes that we will analyze in both cases below. The first possibility is about Donald Trump being recognized and removed from office. This is a very difficult situation to make. [9] The reason is the need for two-thirds of the senators (67 votes) for such a ruling against the president. There are currently 100 senators in the US Senate, 53 in the Republican Party and 47 in the Democrats. So it’s very unlikely that the Democrats will be able to persuade nearly 20 Republicans against their own president. [10]Even if Donald Trump is convicted and dismissed by the Senate, the ruling will not automatically mean that he will not be re-elected in the upcoming election. [11]  In order for Trump to be completely barred from running for re-election, the Senate must decide on a separate ballot, separate from the ballot for impeachment. Given this, given that Trump still has a large following among white Americans and nationalists, he cannot be re-nominated in 2020. [12] But whether or not the Republican Party will support him despite the blame is an issue that can make Republicans hard to decide, losing supporters and dealing with the minds of Democrats who win the arena. They would die. In the second probability, the President of the United States will be expelled from the Senate of that country. Given the Republican majority in the Senate, Donald Trump’s chances are very high. In this case, Trump’s standing among his supporters, in the public mind, and within the Republican Party is further strengthened and his chances of re-election are still rising. Although the Democrats want to impeach Trump by directing public opinion against him, it is likely to be in Trump’s favor. American public opinion, especially Donald Trump’s supporters, has been formed before, and allegations of abuse of power cannot diminish his popularity among his supporters. [13] This set of scenarios imagines a post-impeachment political landscape that has rid itself of Trump. The Republican Party is in a state of flux, trying to figure out what comes next after the end of an administration and party platform driven by a single, powerful personality. [14]

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Sources:

[1] – Trump impeachment timeline: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-impeachment-timeline-key-dates-leading-up-to-the-third-presidential-impeachment-in-us-history-2019-12-24

[2]  – Full text of whistleblower complaint against Trump: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/whistleblower-complaint-released-by-house-intelligence-committee-full-text-2019-09-26

[3] – Pelosi announces Trump impeachment inquiry: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pelosi-announces-trump-impeachment-inquiry-saying-no-one-is-above-the-law-2019-09-24

[4] – Trump impeached in historic House vote: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-poised-for-historic-vote-to-impeach-trump-2019-12-18

[5] – Impeachment:  https://history.house.gov/Institution/Origins-Development/Impeachment/

[6] – How does impeachment work? https://www.ajc.com/news/national/how-does-impeachment-work-here-the-step-step-process/5wUTeEdEgheqohUL1WA0IJ/

[7] – Impeachment Schedule Explained: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/22/us/politics/trump-impeachment-schedule.html

[8] – Why Donald Trump will win 2020: https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/475457-why-donald-trump-will-win-2020

[9] – The 7 Ways Impeachment Could Shape The 2020 Election:  https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-7-ways-impeachment-could-shape-the-2020-election/

[10] – Republican lawmakers are challenging Trump more often, but they won’t abandon him until his base does:  https://www.businessinsider.com/republican-members-congress-wont-abandon-trump-until-base-does-2019-10

[11] – Impeachment and Removal:  https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R44260.pdf

[12] – Fractured Nation: Widening Partisan Polarization and Key Issues in 2020 Presidential Elections: https://www.prri.org/research/fractured-nation-widening-partisan-polarization-and-key-issues-in-2020-presidential-elections/

[13] – Here’s how Trump could be impeached, removed from office, and still win re-election in 2020: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-be-impeached-convicted-but-win-reelection-2020-2019-11

[14] – How Will the Trump Impeachment Affect the 2020 Elections?  https://www.radio.com/articles/news/how-will-impeachment-affect-the-2020-race